Clash of two nuclear pacts

Washington has repeatedly rebuffed Pakistan8217;s demand to have nuclear energy cooperation on the same lines as being proposed for India. The Indo-US nuclear pact is based on the premise that India is a responsible nuclear power. Even the best friends of Pakistan in Washington are not prepared to say the same about Islamabad. Given the extraordinary story of A.Q. Khan8217;s nuclear Wal-Mart, there is little prospect of Pakistan being treated on par with India on nuclear energy cooperation.

While Beijing has been formally silent on the subject, commentary in the official Chinese media was sharply critical of Washington for the nuclear deal with India. Accusing the US of 8220;double standards8221; on nuclear proliferation, the People8217;s Daily last November said that if the US makes a 8220;nuclear exception8221; for India, other powers could do the same with their own friends and weaken the global non-proliferation regime.

Earlier this week, the London-based Financial Times reported that Pakistan is negotiating the purchase of six to eight nuclear reactors from China at a cost of 7-10 billion. The spokeswoman of the Pakistan foreign office, Tasneem Aslam, quickly denied the report, calling it 8220;baseless8221;.

The denial appears less than convincing. Much of the current reporting potential Sino-Pak nuclear cooperation has come amidst Chinese Atomic Energy Chief Sun Qin8217;s to Mianwali in West Punjab to launch the construction of Chinese power reactor called Chashma II. Pakistan prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, who was present at the occasion talked of expanding his country8217;s atomic energy generation from the present 425 MW to about 8,800 MW by 2030. No one in Pakistan is denying these remarks; and no one can deny that currently China is Pakistan8217;s only nuclear partner.

But having recently joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group 8212; the 45-nation club of advanced countries trading in atomic energy technologies and materials 8212; China is bound by certain rules. Under those rules neither India nor Pakistan is eligible for civilian nuclear energy cooperation. And that precisely is the reason why the Bush administration is seeking a modification of these rules in favour India, and only India.

China, however, could sell reactors to Pakistan by claiming that it has past agreements with Islamabad that should be 8220;grand-fathered8221; from the NSG rules. The agreement on Chashma II was signed before China joined the NSG.

Acceptance of Beijing8217;s line would make a mockery of the entire non-proliferation regime. After all, the record says that China sold nuclear weapon and missile technologies to Pakistan and Islamabad passed them further on.

The real purpose of the talk on Sino-Pak nuclear cooperation might be to muddy the unfolding debate on the Indo-US nuclear pact in the American Congress and the NSG. Beijing and Islamabad are posing a simple question: if the US can make an exemption for India, why can8217;t China do the same for Pakistan?

As India and the US seek to accelerate the implementation of the nuclear pact, this argument is likely to acquire some currency among the opponents of the Indo-US nuclear deal in Washington and the NSG. By pointing to the dangerous consequence of Sino-Pak nuclear collaboration, the opponents would argue it would make sense not to change the rules for anyone.

It is even more likely that both Beijing and Islamabad might have concluded that if the Indo-US nuclear pact falls apart, there would be little reason to worry about a future strategic partnership between New Delhi and Washington.

Unless there is a frank conversation between India and China on the subject, mutual suspicions could only grow at a time when they are launching 2006 as a Sino-Indian friendship year.