Brown tips the scales

Vote Blair, Get Brown!8217;8217; It was meant to be a vote-winning slogan for Britain8217;s Opposition Conservatives 8212; showing that ...

Vote Blair, Get Brown!8217;8217; It was meant to be a vote-winning slogan for Britain8217;s Opposition Conservatives 8212; showing that a win for Prime Minister Tony Blair at the May 5 poll would likely foreshadow a future handover to his finance minister Gordon Brown. But the ad was quickly abandoned when the Conservatives realised that instead of bristling at the prospect of not getting the man they vote for, many Britons were delighted.

Tainted by Iraq and eight years into the job, Blair is past his sell-by date for some. Polls predict that will hurt his parliamentary majority on Thursday but not prevent victory. Brown8217;s political capital, on the other hand, has never been higher. His high-profile intervention is widely deemed to have 8216;8216;saved8217;8217; the campaign, polls show him more popular than his boss, and the government8217;s trump card, the economy, is his baby.

8216;8216;Mr Brown has been the dominant character in this election 8230; Blair hugs him as closely as Linus does his blanket in Peanuts,8217;8217; columnist Matthew d8217;Ancona said.

The powerful pair8217;s unexpected inseparability has been a crucial feature of the campaign. From Friday, assuming no upset, the when, if and how of a Blair-Brown transition looks set to dominate UK politics. Blair has said he would step down after serving a full third term and that Brown 8216;8216;will make an excellent Prime Minister8217;8217;.

But many think Blair8217;s announcement of political mortality will make him a lame-duck leader and expect him to step down earlier. Losing a planned 2006 referendum on the EU treaty 8212; that most Britons oppose 8212; may precipitate that. 8216;8216;Blair will step down in one year if the Euro referendum fails and in 2-3 years if not,8217;8217; said Patrick Dunleavy at the London School of Economics.

8216;8216;Labour party telesales people are already collecting comments on Gordon Brown as Prime Minister.8217;8217;

The incongruous alliance between Blair, 51, an Oxford-educated lawyer, and Brown, 54, the gruff-speaking son of a Scottish clergyman, has been one of the most powerful and fascinating political partnerships in British history. As young opposition legislators, they shared a cramped office. Then, according to political folklore, they struck a deal in 1994 for Blair to take the Labour leadership but hand over to Brown in a second term once they won power.

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After sweeping into office in 1997, tension between the pair has never ceased, according to insiders and aides for both who tell of blazing rows over both policies and power. Despite such history, it has all been sweetness and light on the campaign trail as 8212; whether cosmetically or for good 8212; the pair have successfully buried their differences in public.

Private Labour polling showed images of Blair alone brought a hostile response from voters and images of Brown moderate warmth, but together they inspired greater enthusiasm. So sticking together like limpets, they have starred in a sickly-sweet TV ad, exchanged praise ad nauseam, nodded in agreement on policy and shared endless photo opportunities.

Even on Iraq, with Blair8217;s ratings battered over support of the US-led invasion, Brown has eschewed the chance to mark a difference and said he would have acted the same. In return, Blair has virtually guaranteed Brown will remain Chancellor of the Exchequer in a cabinet reshuffle expected on Friday if he wins. That was a far cry from speculation a month ago that Blair would demote his rival after the election. 8216;8216;Instead, Mr Brown has been Mr Blair8217;s essential prop, promised in return both an extension of his lease on the chancellorship and Mr Blair8217;s endorsement for the succession to 10 Downing Street,8217;8217; Blair biographer Philip Stephens said.