Break from the past, break the ice

It is true that expecting the PM8217;s speech in Srinagar to change the situation overnight is unrealistic. But it can certainly begin a process of reconciliation that includes India, Pakistan and the people of Kashmir. The PM8217;s biggest challenge is to address the general suspicion about New Delhi8217;s motives. He must make it clear that measures like troop reduction are not just a matter of strategy but the reflection of a political will to see an end to the people8217;s problems. This is essential because the expected backlash to this CBM has started emanating from quarters of his government.

Everything is in favour of the PM using his Srinagar speech to depart from New Delhi8217;s stale and rigid position and forge a bold, forward-looking Kashmir policy. The emphasis must be on unconditional dialogue rather than surrender. The home minister created confusion by adding the binding of constitutionality to the open-ended talks. Then there is the need to remove the Centre8217;s rigidity vis a vis a triangular dialogue. The Centre is not ready to give in to the demand for talks that give Kashmiri groups a place on the negotiating table along with Pakistan; it is seen as a suicidal concession by every national party. But to get all the separatists to the dialogue table, there is a need to innovate. There is no way forward if this peace process does not provide an opportunity for Kashmiri separatist groups to talk to Pakistan and the separatist and militant leadership based there. According to Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, the NDA government had accepted this demand in principle. Why does the UPA make it a hurdle?

The UPA government, in its initial enthusiasm to do more than what its predecessors had done by roping in Hurriyat moderates, tried to broaden the spectrum of the Centre-Hurriyat dialogue by issuing a fresh appeal to all the groups including militants. Although it backfired, it was a move in the right direction. Only a fool can hope for peace in Kashmir by talking to the moderates alone, who suffered a crisis of credibility not only because of stiff opposition from the hawks led by Syed Ali Shah Geelani and the entire militant leadership in Pakistan but also because of a failure to change the situation on the ground. And when the doves finally walked out of the process, they were politically marginalised.

Now how can the PM break the ice? A call for unconditional dialogue to all separatist groups and an announcement lifting the ban on the separatist leaders to travel to Pakistan will help to end the deadlock. This could be supplemented with Manmohan Singh directly asking Musharraf for help to make the process fruitful. Troop reduction will be a reality only if there is a decrease in the violence which depends on reciprocity across the border.

Then comes the issue of translating the sentiment of reconciliation into reality on the ground. Confidence building measures are futile if they fail to make impact on the ground. It is the behaviour of the security forces, rather than their numbers, that can make a change in people8217;s lives.

The other option for the PM is to follow the usual route. There is a buzz in the Valley that he is coming with an economic package rephrased as a reconstruction plan. Then he can come and make the same noises that his home minister made a few days ago. He can praise the beauty of our mountains and lakes, talk of tourism and extend an olive branch in Srinagar only to retract from it in Jammu. Like his home minister, his itinerary will look like this: All the pro-India Kashmir leadership, government nominated Pahari-speaking delegation, pro-government clerics, Akhil Bhartiya Rachanatmak Samaj delegation, Travel Agents Association of India, Kashmir Hotel and Restaurant Owners Federation, etc.

But if the prime minister is really sincere, he must ensure that the people in Kashmir know that he means a break from the past. It must not be just an economist-politician visiting a conflict zone. On no account must it be Shivraj Patil in another avatar.