Borderline Battle

Rs 15,000-cr Van Bandhu package in April 2007 to woo the Scheduled Tribe (ST) voters. And now Chief Minister Narendra Modi has launched a Rath Yatra through Panchmahals and Dahod. The road show, as it’s called, rolled out on December 5 following internal BJP reports that the party was faring poorly in these tribal districts.

Though a traditional Congress bastion—having been an integral part of the KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, and Muslim) combination—the Hindutva wave in 2002 won over the tribals for the BJP. Of the 26 reserved ST seats in the state that run along its eastern border with Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the BJP cornered 14 in 2002. In 1998, they had got only eight.

The imprint of Godhra on the result was clear: the BJP increased its vote share from 34.01 per cent in 1998 to 53.97 per cent in the tribal seats that come under riot-affected central Gujarat region. The Congress registered a fall from 51.38 in 1998 to 34.86 in 2002.

It remains to be seen how the parties fare in an election minus the emotionally charged environment. The Congress is confident that its traditional support base will be back with it. The party shows the reversal in 2004 as proof of tribals returning to its fold. Of the eight Lok Sabha seats that have sizeable tribal votes, five came to the Congress: Valsad, Mandvi, Chotaudepur, Sabarkantha and Banaskantha.

“This year we have rejuvenated our organisation across the belt. After the Baria rally, each block reported a surge in tribal youth becoming members of the party giving us the confidence. The fact that the BJP has continued with its neglect will help us,” says the Congress’s leader of Opposition in the outgoing Assembly, Arjun Modhwadia. The party has also been strengthened by the return of veteran tribal leader Somji Damor in Dahod who had quit in a huff in 2004 because he wasn’t given a ticket in the Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP, on the other hand, has still to live down the embarrassment of its Dahod MP Babubhai Katara being involved in an illegal immigration scam. More recently, its Dahod MLA Tersinh Damor was arrested in connection with a rioting case. The party, however, hopes to retain its grip on the vote bank with the help of the Modi government’s Van Bandhu package for the tribals.

In a whirlwind campaign through the eastern belt before the elections were announced, Modi addressed seven tribal rallies at government expense, and announced forming of a new tribal district of Tapi by taking out five talukas from Surat district as a buildup to the elections. Party leaders say the positives of a booming economy have trickled down to the tribal population as well. “The CM is popular. His programmes have made a real difference,” says Vijay Patel, the party’s candidate from Dangs in south Gujarat against four-time Congress MLA Madhu Bhoye.

Scheduled Tribes Seats

2002

BJP:14

INC:11

JD (U):NIL

2004 (LS):

BJP:08

INC:18

JD (U):01