BJP turns tables on Maya chessboard

But the last straw may have been the CBI’s interrogation of a close party member, Environment Minister Nazimuddin Siddiqui, in the Taj case.

With many BJP MLAs unhappy with her, Mayawati was also not sure that the Budget that was slated to be presented in the UP Assembly on August 28 would be passed. A defeat on a money Bill would have meant the end of her government. She had deferred the session from August 7 to August 28, and in her speech to her party convention today, she spoke about three dozen BJP MLAs ready to desert the party.

Mayawati may have decided to cut her losses, calculating that by recommending the dissolution of the Assembly while her government still enjoyed a majority, she might be able to continue as the caretaker CM till elections. This would have given her a shield against demands for resignation, which might have come if the CBI questioned her in the Taj case.

The 40-page letter that Mayawati sent to Vajpayee, listing a whole litany of complaints, also indicates that her decision to dissolve the Assembly was not an overnight one. But her plans seem to have gone awry, and the BJP turned the tables on her by withdrawing support. Now, if she does not resign, she will have to prove her majority or quit. It could also make her party vulnerable to poaching by SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, and this is what reportedly worries her.

As for the BJP, while it may have ensured that Mayawati does not continue as the caretaker CM, the end of the alliance comes as a setback for the party in the forthcoming assembly polls.

Though the BSP was going to contest in these states on its own, Mayawati was expected to help the BJP. Even now the BSP will cut into the Congress votes, but Mayawati’s position would be considerably weakened if she does not remain CM.

Governor Vishnu Kant Shastri has made it clear that the BJP’s withdrawal of support came before Mayawati’s recommendation of dissolution. The BJP, say sources, had an inkling for some weeks that she might do something like this. In fact, state BJP leader Lalji Tandon had reportedly called on the Governor not just last night but also the night Mayawati was to return to Lucknow after her last visit to Delhi.

There are four possible scenarios now. One, an alternative government right away, if Mulayam can show he has the numbers. This would not help the BJP because such a government could last for three and a half years.

The second scenario is President’s Rule, in the event of no one able to form a government. This would suit the BJP, enabling it to keep its flock together, for its MLAs will see Central rule as their own government. But the ruling combine will need opposition support to get President’s Rule ratified by Parliament in a couple of months. Without the BSP, the NDA may not have the requisite majority in the Upper House.

The third scenario is an alternative government later, and the SP would have to break the BSP or BJP to swing it. The BJP would benefit from a split in the BSP.

The fourth scenario could be dissolution of the Assembly, along with central rule. The Centre is likely to opt for this only after President’s Rule has been extended with the support of the Opposition. This way, the Centre would be able to determine the timing of the elections in UP.

However, SP general secretary Amar Singh is not sure the BJP and the BSP won’t kiss and make up, again. ‘‘There is a big if whether this coalition will actually break up because Mayawati has not resigned and the BJP has given a conditional withdrawal letter…What is a guarantee this divorce is permanent?’’ he asks. (with Vrinda Gopinath)