BJP names new scapegoat for UP

The catalyst for taking a decision over which the central leadership dithered for many months is next month’s civic polls which are being held in the shadow of the BJP’s poor performance in June’s panchayat polls.

What has really got the party worried is its internal analysis of the panchayat poll results which showed a perceptible shift in the Thakur vote towards Mulayam Singh.

The SP chief’s success in cracking the BJP’s core vote base was the result of hard wooing by Mulayam, who with Thakur Amar Singh by his side, had blitzed Thakur-dominated areas with rallies and sammelans.

Mulayam’s strategy has been to craft a Yadav-Muslim-Thakur axis which would help to propel him to the number one position in next year’s assembly polls. And if the panchayat poll results were any indication, Mulayam was well on the way to his target.

The extent of the BJP’s anxiety over the shift in caste equations on the ground can be gauged from the fact that Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee agreed to entertain party leaders from UP while in hospital in Mumbai. Among those who met him were Mishra, Rajnath Singh and Ram Prakash Gupta himself. Clearly, things in UP had reached a crisis point.

The UP leaders came with a warning to the PM that unless there was a change of guard in Lucknow, the party would do far worse in the civic polls than it did in the panchayat elections. Soon after, Home Minister L K Advani flew to Mumbai to meet the PM and Gupta’s fate was sealed.

Although various caste lobbies in UP have been trying to get rid of Gupta almost from the day he assumed office, what made it easier for them this time was the fact that the leader of one of the main factions, Kalraj Mishra, had been mollified with the post of state unit president. A consensus on Rajnath Singh as CM was thus hammered out in Mumbai.

There were indications today that the UP package formulated by the central leadership includes the appointment of Om Prakash Singh, a Kurmi by caste, as Deputy Chief Minister as a sop to the non-Yadav OBCs. In the fractured scenario of UP, the BJP clearly wants to mop up as many castes as it can possibly get.

Another plus in Rajnath Singh’s favour is the fact that he was the brain behind the coalition government which the BJP is heading in Lucknow today. He was the one who broke Naresh Aggarwal away from the Congress and coaxed a splinter group to walk out of the BSP.

When Uttaranchal is formed next month, the BJP’s majority in UP will be reduced to just two. It would need a man with formidable coalition skills to run the fragile government in Lucknow.

Why Gupta got the boot now
* The BJP was finding it difficult to defend him
* With municipal and assembly polls approaching, the BJP had to do something to avoid the rout if faced in the panchayat polls. Gupta going is meant to be a signal that the party is cleaning its stable
* Once Uttaranchal was formed, the BJP’s majority in the UP assembly will come down to two. Rajnath Singh, the architect of the present coalition govt in UP would be better placed to tackle troublesome allies
* Gupta became CM because the BJP couldn’t decide among Singh, Kalraj Mishra and Lalji Tandon. With Mishra taking over as party chief, the decision became easy
* Rajnath Singh as CM would help the party consolidate the Thakur vote.