Beni146;s move could see UP going the Bihar way

Just as Nitish was Lalu8217;s closest lieutenant till he broke away from the Janata Dal, Varma was the clear No. 2 and a founder member of the Samajwadi Party. Moreover, both belong to the Kurmi caste8212;the second most numerically strong OBC after the Yadavs 8211; and both have a clean image and a reputation for administrative efficiency.

If Nitish and Verma have many things in common, the parallel between Lalu and Mulayam is equally striking. Although the two have very different personalities, both emerged as mass leaders in the post-Mandal churning that engulfed north India in the late 1980s and early 1990s and owe their rise to the OBC consolidation that took place at that time. The entire OBC spectrum backed their leadership and not just the numerically preponderant Yadavs.

8220;But both Lalu and Mulayam let down their supporters, especially the non-Yadav OBCs,8221; said a JDU insider. Despite their socialist background, both leaders indulged in nepotism, were embroiled in corruption scandals and operated more like petty Yadav chieftains than leaders championing social justice, their erstwhile colleagues feel.

In Bihar, even BJP leaders readily concede, Lalu raj would not have ended in the absence of an alternative OBC leadership. The rise in backward caste consciousness and assertion was such that no upper caste leader could pose a challenge to the RJD chief for years. It took Nitish more than a decade to achieve that aim. The JDU-BJP alliance 8212; representing the coming together of upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs , extremely backward castes EBCs and sections of the MY Muslims and Yadavs combine 8212; finally managed to oust Lalu after years of trial and error. Nitish8217;s personality and OBC credentials played a big role in the alliance8217;s success, his party colleagues believe.

The situation in UP is a little more complicated because unlike in Bihar there is a strong Dalit party and leader in the state that pose a direct challenge to the Samajwadi Party. With no equivalent leader of Mayawati8217;s stature or support base, the JDU-BJP combine could channelise the bulk of the non-MY vote in the last Bihar elections. As a result, the RJD with 53 seats was reduced to third position in the state after the JDU 98 and BJP 58.

In UP, a similar polarisation will take a long time to happen. But the process has begun, members of the extended 8220;Janata parivar8221; feel, with the emergence of the Apna Dal and the formation of Verma8217;s Samajwadi Kranti Dal.

Although Verma is not allying with the BJP-JD U-Apna Dal combine this time round, such a polarisation could take place after the assembly polls and impact the Lok Sabha elections in 2009.

In this context, Verma8217;s public statement in Barabanki yesterday is considered significant. Verma said he would consult former Prime Minister and Janata Dal S president H.D. Deve Gowda and Janata DalU chief Sharad Yadav while chalking out his future plans.

Verma8217;s association with the two leaders go back a long way. Verma was initially appointed minister of state for communications in the United Front government in 1996. But Deve Gowda and Sharad Yadav who was then Janata Dal chief decided to elevate him to cabinet rank 8212; a gesture Verma has always remembered.

Verma, who has worked under both Ram Manohar Lohia and Charan Singh and has been a six-term MLA and four-term MP, was considered a pre-eminent Socialist leader of UP till the mid 1990s. But with the rise of Amar Singh, old horses like Verma and Janeshwar Mishra were slowly sidelined.

His decision to finally leave Mulayam could herald the start of a 8220;realignment8221; of forces within the OBC and Janata fold, JDU and JDS leaders feel. 8220;If we all come together, we can set up a strong regional outfit and take over the leadership of OBCs in UP,8221; a Janata insider said. But like in Bihar and Karnataka, the BJP might end up being the eventual beneficiary of the fresh round of churning in the OBC politics of UP.