Angels fear to tread

The government would be well advised to nip in the bud talk of an immediate mid-term poll. The temptation for, and indeed the pressure on, t...

The government would be well advised to nip in the bud talk of an immediate mid-term poll. The temptation for, and indeed the pressure on, the BJP to go for an immediate election is strong. If anything comes close to promising the party an outright majority in Parliament, it is the resounding approval within the country that has greeted the nuclear tests.

And a majority, desirable at all times, becomes even more precious to the party after it has experienced at first hand the difficulties of heading a coalition. Much of the excitement now generated would be lost if a mid-term poll was called, say, six months hence. Not only would the events of the past week be overtaken by other things, such as fresh coalition problems for starters, the nuclear jubilation would itself become more muted as sanctions began to bite and the full force of international outrage went home.

Meanwhile, units of the party in states where it did badly in the recent elections, such as Rajasthan, would like to capitalise on thenuclear tests in an immediate election. The time to strike, it would seem, is while the iron is still hot.

That may be good electoral reasoning for the BJP as a party striving to improve its fortunes at home. But in the overall scheme of things today it is emphatically out of sync with what is required. Whatever the United States has to say and do in relation to India in its bid to contain the spread of nuclear weapons, there is no doubt at all that the legitimacy of what India has to say is recognised around the world even if not acknowledged.

The government has been emphatic in conveying to the governments of other countries that the reason why India had to go nuclear was its deteriorating security environment. Reinforcing this logic is India8217;s moral case which questions the right of an exclusive club to keep its weapons while forcing India, on pain of punishment, to remain at the nuclear threshold. Since the tests, the government has maintained an argument which is morally upright, logically persuasiveand diplomatically to India8217;s advantage.

Calling an election now will make these assertions hollow. Those who attack India8217;s tests will leap at the opportunity to tell the world that the tests were the work of a beleaguered government trying to strengthen its own security rather than the country8217;s.

Those Indians who have solidly backed the government on the nuclear issue because India8217;s security genuinely demanded testing, and for which they are prepared to pay the price as a nation, could be disillusioned by an obvious attempt to manipulate them. So far the BJP government has handled the whole affair with considerable finesse and an obvious commitment to the country. It would be foolish for it to jeopardise all that to try to immediately better its parliamentary position.

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In any case, if the party rides out the storm and keeps the nation united in the face of an international onslaught, the electoral benefits would still be there for it some time down the line. What it does now will be a tough test ofits commitment to the national interest. The stakes are high both for the country and the party. The BJP had better not slip up.