Allies deliver, BJP may bag slender majority

NEW DELHI, OCT 6: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance was poised to win a slender majority after the first day of counting, thanks l...

NEW DELHI, OCT 6: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance was poised to win a slender majority after the first day of counting, thanks largely to the success of the new partnerships forged in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Haryana.

But while these allies came good, the BJP was in for a shock from its core area, the Hindi heartland, where its nightmare scenario of crippling losses was threatening to turn into reality.

The picture will clarify only tomorrow when the final results from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which together constitute almost one third of the Lok Sabha, come in. But as of tonight, it seemed that the BJP itself may prove to be the NDA8217;s Achilles Heel, throwing up big questions marks on the shape and stability of the next government.

After a six-month long face-off between the BJP and the Congress, which saw major political movements to make for a two-front contest, the 13th Lok Sabha promises to be as sharply divided and as acrimonious as the last one. So much for the pollsters who had predicted a resounding victory for the NDA before the campaign began.

If Kargil was at all an issue, as the opinion polls had declared, it manifested itself only in urban pockets like Delhi where the BJP swept all seven seats. In most places, local factors and the anti-incumbency anger dominated, making for clear mandates in each state but adding up to a fractured overall picture.

Contrary to pre-poll expectations, the Third Front parties and the regional parties remain strong forces and will continue to pull their weight in the next Lok Sabha. This has happened despite the perceived domination of the BJP and the Congress during the poll campaign. Clearly, the Indian polity remains fragmented and stability is just an urban middle class dream.

If the BJP8217;s own strength in the 13th Lok Sabha is reduced, as seems possible judging by the trends tonight, the regional parties and their aspirations and demands are likely to continue to dominate at the Centre. And the BJP will have to do some serious introspection about itself as a party hoping to replace the Congress as the main political force.

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For the Congress, these polls may prove to be a miscalculation. It was clearly in no position to take on a formidable rival like the BJP at this point, despite the latter8217;s expected poor showing in UP. It has gained in the heartland, but given the fact it started from a low vote base and no organisational network to consolidate the anti-incumbency feeling in UP, it has had to share the BJP8217;s losses with the BSP and the SP.

The message from the people to political parties is once again the same 8212; deliver or else8230;.The churning process thus continues.