A handy whipping boy

As for the attempts to woo Muslims, the participants wondered whether the BJP8217;s new rhetoric was merely tactical. 8220;The BJP cannot be expected to sever its umbilical links with the RSS,8221; some said. Sattar referred to 8220;the instructive record of the sweet and soft Gujral of Chakwal,8221; meaning thereby that Pakistan had been led up the garden path by friendly noises. Sattar said: 8220;Few of the past 11 elections brought any amelioration in India8217;s hostility and pressure against Pakistan. And it was improbable that the next one will. Indeed the reverse appears likely.8221;

Malik saw some advantage in the BJP ruling India. 8220;An extremist Hindu government at New Delhi would help forge a greater unity and solidarity among the people of Pakistan,8221; he said. 8220;A fundamentalist regime in India would not be viewed with favour by the rest of the world.8221;Several participants proposed common action with like-minded countries. They said they should alert the Muslim world, particularly the OIC, to take note of the probable emergence of a 8220;fundamentalist Hindu regime in India.8221; Malik said: 8220;In view of India8217;s burgeoning nuclear and satellite programmes it may not be inappropriate if some of the OIC countries were persuaded to collaborate with Pakistan to develop the capacity for launching satellites as a counter to India8217;s hegemonic and imperial ambitions.8221;

It was believed that the BJP would declare India a nuclear weapons State. 8220;An effective response within our constrained circumstances should call for timely preparation,8221; Sattar said. 8220;Our government historically evinced a predilection for procrastination and had, more recently, been preoccupied with internal matters.8221; He warned against New Delhi8217;s still more hostile policies if and when the BJP came to power. He said: 8220;Clues to the policy of a BJP government should have to be traced in itsideology, political antecedents, election manifestoes and statements of its leaders.8221;

Kashmir figured, naturally. Sattar underlined India8217;s unequivocal stand of sovereignty over Kashmir, including Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The BJP was quoted as having pledged to 8220;reclaim the portions of our territory illegally held by Pakistan.8221; This view was not shared by all. Still, they felt that India had gained ground by 8220;stepping up its brutal repression with the blessings of the West.8221; They criticised the Pakistan government for having 8220;practically agreed to bilateralise the issue the way India wanted it.8221; Mushahid and Malik, however, defended the Pakistan government and said that it had kept the Kashmir question alive and put India 8220;on the defensive by retracting from holding talks.8221; They also referred to Pakistan8217;s opposition to India8217;s bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council.

Still, the majority of participants felt that Pakistan8217;s policies on Kashmir since 1989 had been 8220;inadequate and atbest reactive.8221; They said there was no alternative to 8220;materially support the Kashmiris in their life and death struggle and to make up even at this late stage for the just and incontrovertible cause of the right to self-determination.8221;

On the elections, the participants made three points. One, all the three major contestants 8212; the BJP, the Congress and the United Front 8212; had alliances. Two, Sonia Gandhi had finally entered the political arena to boost the sagging fortunes of the Congress. Three, India had stumbled into fresh elections. None wanted it, least of all the United Front and the Congress. India could not afford such an expensive business every two years. Also, the country8217;s progress suffered because of 8220;the discontinuity and a lame-duck caretaker government.8221;

It was really Khalid Mahmood who sketched the contours of the possible outcome. He expected gains for the BJP but felt it would be well short of a majority. Even with the help of its allies, it would not have 273 seats in the545-member Lok Sabha. Abdus Sattar also anticipated an increase in the BJP8217;s strength. But his emphasis was on the 8220;renewed hostility of the BJP against Pakistan.8221; He recalled, however, that when A. B. Vajpayee was Foreign Minister in the Janata Party government 1977-79, it was a golden period of relations between India and Pakistan.

Except for Kashmir, the participants in the seminar have re-echoed more or less the thoughts expressed in India. Where they go wrong is in their assessment of the determination of non-BJP forces to keep out communal elements. The fact that all of them joined hands to keep out the BJP after the last election shows that some sort of polarisation has developed. The recent instance is that of developments in UP where even sworn enemies like Mulayam Singh and Mayawati buried the hatchet to try to defeat Kalyan Singh.

True, the current election has somewhat blurred the picture. But it is the BJP which has compromised more than the parties with which it has jointly fought at thepolls. The BJP has deferred its agenda to build the temple. Even Article 370 will not be amended till the BJP8217;s allies agree to it. The BJP has been forced to dilute its stand because it has realised that it cannot win on its own plank, save in the Hindi heartland. India is already in the midst of a battle between communal and secular forces. But a theocratic state like Pakistan cannot see the polarisation.