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A defanged AGP

Events in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have eclipsed equally important developments in Assam. With the Asom Gana Parishad more or less wiped o...

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Events in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have eclipsed equally important developments in Assam. With the Asom Gana Parishad more or less wiped out, the state appears to be headed for another phase of civil disorder. Chief Minister Prafulla Mahanta has not been able to put his house in order, and now his subjects will be made to pay for it. Mahanta himself has come out of the debacle with his dignity severely punctured. Even his wife lost from Nagaon, where he was in college and made his entry into student politics. And Mahanta has been forced to blame the disaster on the ULFA ban on the polls. The view from the ground, however, was different. One out of every two voters in Assam turned out to defy the ULFA ban and the Janata curfew8217;. On Majuli island, where Sanjoy Ghose worked before he was murdered by the ULFA last year, more than three quarters of the electorate turned out. The boycott was a complete failure in Karbi Anglong, the Barak Valley and North Cachar. Mahanta8217;s contention that he was robbed of victoryby the ULFA ban would make logical sense only if he was counting on votes polled by ULFA cadres.

Mahanta has probably never been worse off through his political career. He has lost face with the electorate, which has told him in no uncertain terms that he has squandered the mandate. He has demonstrated his government8217;s inability to conduct elections without substantial paramilitary aid from the Centre. In fact, it is doubtful whether his government is even capable of day-to-day governance, given the resources at its disposal. For instance, how can the ULFA, which is armed with military weapons, be taken on by a ragtag police force that the administration has neglected for years? Mahanta may have got a temporary reprieve from the LoC threat, but the issue will refuse to go away. There has also been a split in the party with the Asom Jatiya Sanmilan breaking away, and one of his Cabinet ministers has put in his papers. Finally, he is denied the help of Bhrigu Phukan, who had been with him through theanti-foreigner agitation, and who has been suspended from the membership of the party.

During its current stint in office, the AGP should have tried to force talks upon a weakened ULFA. Unfortunately, all that has been achieved is to convince the ULFA that the government gets to set the terms for talks, if any. The balance of power between the ULFA and the State is not about to change for the better now. In fact, the situation may worsen if the BJP and its allies form the government at the Centre. The BJP8217;s interest in Assam is likely to be purely electoral because despite the gains it has seen in the Parliamentary election, it cannot yet dream of securing a meaningful presence in the Assembly. Therefore, the adequate governance of Assam is unlikely to be a major priority with it. Mahanta cannot expect it to give a very sympathetic hearing to his problems, and with his standing at an all-time low, he will not be able to run the state very well on his own either. A defanged AGP is the last thing that Assamneeds now, but it will just have to learn to live with it.

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