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This is an archive article published on February 18, 2000

A decade later, PDS prices are still lower

NEW DELHI, FEBRUARY 17: Common varieties of rice sold in ration shops in 1991 cost Rs 3.77 per kg. Believe it or not, a little under a dec...

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NEW DELHI, FEBRUARY 17: Common varieties of rice sold in ration shops in 1991 cost Rs 3.77 per kg. Believe it or not, a little under a decade later, the same rice, this time sold to those below the poverty line, costs Rs 3.50! And wheat which cost Rs 2.80 then, costs Rs 2.50 today for the below-poverty section of the population. Not surprisingly, food subsidies have shot up from a manageable Rs 2,450 crore in 1990-91 to an expected Rs 12,700 crore, or a little more than 50 per cent more than the budget estimate for the year.

The same story can be replicated across most sectors of the economy, though perhaps a little less dramatically (see graphic). Prices of LPG cylinders are certainly higher than those prevailing a decade ago, but the subsidy borne by the government on each cylinder have shot up from Rs 64 in 1994-95 to around Rs 148 at present — in other words, household consumers pay just a fraction under half the actual cost, while the government picks up the rest of the tab. The subsidy bill on LPG has gone up from Rs 1,410 crore to Rs 4,000 crore. The per litre subsidy on kerosene has gone up from Rs 3.39 per litre to Rs 7.23, and the total bill has increased from Rs 3,740 crore to Rs 8,000 crore. And with very small changes in the price of electricity, power subsidies have risen five times over the decade, to Rs 31,600 crore this year.

This is Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha’s real challenge. While he, as well as party colleagues such as the BJP’s vice-president Jana Krishnamurthy, have been talking of a really tough budget over the past fortnight, unless he ruthlessly cuts subsidies, the budget is a non-starter even before it is presented.

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Also, while the government has been acting on this over the past couple of years, the progress is so slow that it may as well not be happening. In the case of LPG and kerosene subsidies, for instance, the United Front government had committed to reducing these by around a third each year for the last couple of years, but this never really happened — the last hike in LPG prices took place over 13 months ago. Similarly, last year in January, prices of wheat and rice sold through ration shops for both the population above the poverty line (APL) and that below the poverty line (BPL) was raised, but a week later the BPL prices were rolled back completely. This has led to a situation, as pointed out earlier, where the BPL ration prices for rice and wheat are lower, even in nominal terms, than they were a decade ago. Needless to say, prices haven’t been hiked since last January, even though the prices paid to farmers has kept rising.

And, even in the case of diesel, where the United Front government had agreed to revise the prices each month, to compensate for any changes in global prices, the government has delayed hiking prices.

This is Sinha’s real challenge. Watch this space to see if he can live up to it.

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