
Little sparks become raging fires, small gatherings become uncontrollable mobs, tiny trends acquire cult following. In each case the key is to spot things early; a good policeman would do that, so would a sharp equity investor. Mapping trends is the subject of a most interesting book by Malcolm Gladwell, appropriately called The Tipping Point, the point at which a movement becomes unstoppable. Had Gladwell been a student of contemporary cricket, he would have added another case study to his impressive collection: 20-20 cricket.
Like with most innovations 20-20 cricket is torn between the traditionalists and the early adopters. Being a mere marketing issue, and not a messy matter of a church or a temple, the marketing man will win, assuming of course that he has the desire to do so. 20-20 will be here to stay; frenetic action, instant gratification, it is a product of the times. It cannot be stopped.
How interesting it is that the 50-over game is now throwing up traditionalists, for its own birth lay in revolution, its progress a stinging riposte to antique thought. As the original revolutionaries grow middle-aged they probably hold on to their own symbols of revolt: Che Guevara maybe, Jim Morrison maybe, Amitabh Bachchan and 50-over cricket with coloured clothing.
But 20-20 need not replace 50-over cricket for life, most often, is not about substitution but addition. T-shirts can live with ties, sneakers with fine leather. And so the happy co-existence of Test cricket and one-day cricket can get happier with the arrival of 20-20. The customer will have a wider range to choose from.
Like rock and roll, reggae and rap, Rafi, Rahman and remix, so too Test cricket, one-day cricket and 20-20. That is how it must be. The customer must be king and he will choose, for the objective of sport is to entertain.
I actually believe 20-20 cricket will rejuvenate 50-over cricket in much the manner the limited-overs international did to test cricket. For some time now one-day cricket has carried a tired look to it; a good hotel with old carpets. Too many games have been predictable, the middle overs follow a formula, one surface is like another.
You still get close games but their definition has changed. Viewers and players alike are better educated, more discerning. A 10 run margin is a pretty big win now and 50 overs is too long for mediocre teams to achieve parity with good ones; and it is parity which is what makes for a good contest.
So do we dilute skills even more, throw the bowler out of the game, reduce our sport to a public flogging of ball by bat? No, we create a new category, find a breed of players who can perform instantly. Just as cinema has the long and dramatic Titanic, the irreverent display of reality in Fahrenheit 9/11 and the glossy 30-second commercial, so too must cricket present a basket of offerings to its faithful.
It will probably redefine standards of good and average as well. Till 10 years ago, conceding around 30 runs in 10 overs was very good, under 40 was very acceptable. We have now come to accept that anything under 50 runs from a 10-over spell is pretty decent given the kind of pitches, quality of bats and sophistication of hitting. But 5 an over in Test cricket is poor, 4 an over means a bowler hasn8217;t had a great day. So too with 20-20, where 7 an over will probably become a bench mark, 8 an over the first target for a batting side.
India will have to join in, though there will be debate on whether or not we need it given that cricket has no competition. But as marketing men will tell you the next rival must come from within, the flanking product must be yours. And India will have to adapt quickly because 20-20 will be the athlete8217;s game. And that hasn8217;t always been our strong point.
Coaches will have to re-define themselves and television will have to rise to the occasion. Those haven8217;t been strong points recently in India either.
It will give sponsors who find themselves priced out of cricket a new vehicle, it will draw the marginal followers in. It will add to the entertainment. It is time to feel the fresh breeze blowing. If we don8217;t, it will just move on and leave us behind.