Bird flu vaccine production still lags: Study

“We found that considerable progress has been made to enhance the production capacity of pandemic influenza vaccine,” Adam Sabow,partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman which conducted the study,said in a statement.

“While capacity still falls short of global need during a pandemic,the surplus capacity during the inter-pandemic period creates opportunities for preparedness efforts,” he said.

Oliver Wyman carried out the study with the World Health Organisation (WHO) and International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations (IFPMA).

Manufacturers hunting for the best vaccines to stop the deadly disease face a race against the clock if the H5N1 strain of influenza now circulating in birds mutates and starts spreading easily among humans,as many researchers fear.

In the most likely case,manufacturers could produce 2.5 billion doses of pandemic vaccine in the 12 months following receipt of the production strain,requiring four years to satisfy global demand,the study said.

In the current best-case scenario,7.7 billion doses could be produced in the first 12 months,requiring 1.5 years to satisfy global demand,it said. Production was expected to increase significantly over the next five years.

Effective coverage through mass immunization is based on two doses per person for a global population of 6.7 billion.

GlaxoSmithKline,Europe’s biggest drug maker,and Sanofi-Aventis,whose vaccines arm is Sanofi Pasteur and Swiss drug maker Novartis are among at least 16 companies working on pandemic vaccines.

“The findings suggest that the early use of stockpiled H5N1-based vaccines,followed by pandemic vaccines as soon as these become available,offers a realistic strategy to address this significant threat,” IFPMA Director-General Alicia Greenidge said in a statement.

Geneva-based IFPMA links 26 leading international companies and 44 national and regional industry associations. Oliver Wyman also talked to 11 other current or potential vaccine makers in developing countries who are not members of IFPMA.

The bird flu virus has killed 254 people out of 408 infected worldwide since 2003,according to the WHO,a United Nations agency which has warned that a pandemic could kill millions.

A challenge in producing a vaccine for millions of people around the world is how to make the maximum number of shots from the minimum amount of antigen,or active ingredient.