In Rajasthan’s Anta, what Congress bypoll win means for key players – Gehlot, Raje, the CM, and a perpetual rebel

Bhaya gained from being a local heavyweight with a long political career, which included being an MLA three times, including as a cabinet minister, and from being close to former chief minister Ashok Gehlot.

BJP perhaps could not overcome Morpal Suman’s low profile – despite campaigning by CM Bhajan Lal Sharma and former CM Vasundhara Raje – in a high-profile contest. With Meena and Bhaya occupying the headlines, Suman’s campaign could not outpace the momentum for Bhaya.

Naresh Meena was third-time unlucky, having rebelled from the Congress for three consecutive years – and losing each time.

For the BJP

While it was a single Assembly seat – out of a total of 200 – which went to the polls, the loss would pinch the ruling Bhajan Lal Sharma government, which has been facing questions over its administration of the state. Just days ago, in a move that raised eyebrows, Chief Secretary Sudhansh Pant moved back to the Centre, virtually bringing out friction within the government in the open.

The bypoll was also important – to a certain extent – for former CM Vasundhara Raje. Unlike bypolls in the previous Ashok Gehlot government (2018-2023), when a sidelined Raje largely kept away from campaigning for the bypolls, and Congress ended up winning most of them, she had now campaigned for the BJP candidate Suman – even if in a perfunctory manner. Moreover, the Assembly constituency falls under her core area of influence, in and around Jhalawar district. The loss may embolden her detractors to claim her waning influence.

For the Congress

The win will help the Congress push its narrative of the Sharma government’s inexperience, apart from helping stimulate the sluggish state unit of the party. For Ashok Gehlot, too, the win will help burnish his image as Bhaya is considered close to the former CM. Although the party has put up a united face, a new front under state president Govind Singh Dotasra has been taking shape, and former Deputy CM Sachin Pilot’s antagonism to Gehlot is already well documented.

Around this time last year, the BJP had won five out of seven seats that went to bypolls in the state. The Congress party, which had four seats, managed to win just the Dausa seat. With the Anta win, the party may now again claim that there is only so much that a centralised system of governance can do.

For the rebel

The poll was, perhaps, the most important for Independent Naresh Meena. This is the third time in three years that Meena has rebelled and jeopardised the Congress’s chances.

In the 2023 Assembly elections, he rebelled and contested from the Chhabra Assembly, also in the Baran district, as an independent candidate and stood third with about 44,000 votes. For context, BJP’s Pratap Singh Singhvi received 65,000 votes while Congress’s Karan Singh received 59,892 votes.

In 2024, he sought a Congress ticket for the bypoll to the Deoli-Uniara Assembly in Tonk next door, but was again turned down. While BJP’s Rajendra Gurjar managed to win comfortably with 1,00,599 votes, Meena cornered 59,478 votes, and Congress’s Kastoor Chand Meena was pushed to the third position with 31,385 votes.

Naresh Meena’s supporters have been pushing the narrative that the Congress party is apprehensive of his rise and has been keeping him out, while Congress leaders cite Meena’s trouble-making and mercurial nature – he is known for frequent public outbursts, including alleged assaults.

Now, with another loss, Meena and his supporters will have to wait for the long-awaited vindication.

The by-election was necessitated after the disqualification of sitting BJP MLA Kanwarlal Meena this May under the Representation of the People (RP) Act, 1951, after he was found guilty under IPC Sections 353 (assault or criminal force to deter a public servant), 506 (criminal intimidation), and the Prevention of Damage to Public Property (PDPP) Act in a 20-year-old case. Meena is considered close to former CM Raje.

In 2005, demanding a re-poll in a sarpanch election in Manohar Thana, Jhalawar, Meena had threatened then RAS officer Ram Niwas Mehta with a revolver.

The BJP has a comfortable 118 seats, and with the Anta win, the Congress tally would go up to 67. Bharat Adivasi Party has four seats, Bahujan Samaj Party has two, Rashtriya Lok Dal has one, while eight others are independents in an Assembly of 200.