Nitish is winner of Jitan Ram Manjhi episode, it’s now up to BJP to choose path ahead

The BJP had two choices. One, it could publicly keep itself aloof from murky goings-on, project a principled stand, keep the focus on negative features of the JD(U) policies and leadership, not overplay the Mahadalit-card and let Manjhi and Nitish slug it out.
Two, it could openly side with Manjhi, showcase him as a Mahadalit Messiah wronged by Nitish, try splitting the JD(U) and walk away with the Mahadalit vote in the run up to assembly elections. The central leadership wanted to exercise the first option, but the state unit preferred the second and was allowed to go ahead.

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His wish to return to power might have been realised, but Nitish has to contend with some serious issues now. To start with, he has to work out a clearer understanding with RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, who currently has a stronger support base than him in the state. This involves a participation of not just Lalu’s RJD, but also the Congress in the new government. The elections not being too far, the foes-turned friends have to address the question of seat-sharing in the absence of a much-hyped merger and the projection of its candidate for the chief ministership.

Jitan Ram Manjhi in Patna. (PTI photo)

Fortunately for Nitish, both Lalu and his wife Rabri Devi are out of reckoning. It is also a fact that nobody within the four-party alliance has a stature which measures up to Nitish’s. But, it would take Lalu’s green signal for Nitish for being packaged as the alliance choice for the top job.

Having built up Manjhi into a Mahadalit icon, the BJP will have to ensure that he not only stays as one, but also delivers. What is the guarantee that he would? If he can turn his back on the man who made him CM, he can well disappoint the BJP too. What, if he returns to the JD(U)-fold? After all, he has not attacked Nitish at a personal-level at all. At worst, he has only likened him to Bhishm of Maharashtra, who was a mute spectator to injustice. If he does go back to the JD(U), what happens to the Mahadalit vote-bank is anybody’s guess.
Manjhi, according to conservative wisdom, would float his own regional party, take people like Papu Yadav and Sadhu Yadav along, field candidates with a strategic understanding with the BJP and undermine the prospects of Janata Parivar as well as Congress candidates. The facade of a separate party would enable him to attack upper castes in order to consolidate his own social base. It is for the BJP to see how much of a puppet Manjhi will be.

Lastly, he can join the BJP. His induction would provide the party with a prominent Dalit face, though it would mean a vindication of Nitish, who has repeatedly accused the BJP of being hand-in-glove with Manjhi. But then, Nitish would demand of the BJP to declare him as the party’s chief ministerial choice to demonstrate its affection for Mahadalits.

Manjhi may be a central figure today. But it is doubtful that he would remain one after a while unless the BJP provides him with a great deal of resources. The advantage of a big political victory and government resources on his side hence, Nitish would try to utilise the current momentum to embark on a state-wide campaign and set new goalposts. Since the BJP has not been able to exploit the recent crisis to bolster its own image and standing, it would need a lot more than the Mahadalit-card to counter him.

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