TB burden dips but India far from elimination target, says global TB report: Goal of reducing 50% of cases, 75% of deaths since 2015 seem distant

The story behind the numbers

The Global TB Report shows that India has reduced its TB incidence by 21% and deaths by 28% between 2015 and 2024, meaning the country is unlikely to achieve elimination in 2025. In fact, it is nowhere close to achieving even the WHO End TB milestone for 2025 — a reduction of 50% in TB incidence and 75% in TB deaths as compared to 2015. The report says that India in fact achieved only one half of the global 2020 milestone of reducing TB incidence by 20% and deaths by 35% as compared to 2015 last year.

Around 92% of the people estimated to have tuberculosis in the country were diagnosed and put on treatment in 2024.

However, this reduction achieved by India is ahead of the global average. Globally, TB incidence reduced only by 12% between 2015 and 2024. India had set the ambitious target of eliminating the bacterial disease by the end of this year, five years ahead of the global target.

Diagnosis and treatment coverage

Importantly, the report shows a significant improvement in TB treatment coverage in the country in 2024. Around 92% of the people estimated to have tuberculosis in the country were diagnosed and put on treatment in 2024. This is a jump from 85% recorded in 2023. “India’s innovative case-finding approach, driven by the swift uptake of newer technologies, decentralisation of services and large scale community mobilisation, has led to the country’s treatment coverage to surge to over 92% in 2024 from 53% in 2015,” the Union Health Ministry said in a statement.

This is significant considering that the infection continues to spread when people are left out of the treatment net.

The health ministry credited its expansion of molecular testing, using innovative methods such as AI-enabled handheld X-rays that are very good at detecting asymptomatic cases, as well as community mobilisation for the drop in the number of “missing cases.”

Dip in missing cases

There is usually a gap between the number of estimated cases and the number of people who are diagnosed with TB every year — these missing cases are thought to continue the spread of the infection. With 26.18 lakh of the 27.1 lakh estimated cases being diagnosed in 2024, the number of missing cases stood at just one lakh “from an estimated 15 lakh in 2015 to less than one lakh in 2024,” the Health Ministry said.

The ministry’s intensive campaign, which was rolled out in December last year, actually helped detect the high number of asymptomatic cases — those in the early stages of the disease but who can continue to spread the disease. Over 19 crore vulnerable individuals have been screened for TB under the campaign, resulting in a detection of over 24.5 lakh cases, including 8.61 lakh asymptomatic cases. “This proactive approach draws on both global and local evidence, underscoring the prevalence of asymptomatic TB in high-burden settings.”