The Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) broke away from the NDA on Monday, its president Upendra Kushwaha, who resigned as Minister of State for HRD, accusing Prime Minister Narendra Modi of reducing the union cabinet to a “rubber stamp”, “betraying” OBCs, and giving Bihar only “jumlas”. On the eve of Parliament’s Winter Session and results of Assembly elections in three major BJP-ruled heartland states, Kushwaha said he was open to joining the opposition alliance of Lalu Prasad’s RJD and the Congress. The RLSP has three MPs in Lok Sabha and two MLAs in Bihar. What does the move mean for the NDA and for the opposition UPA? What is Kushwaha himself likely to gain or lose? Why BJP thinks it no longer needs Kushwaha After Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) broke with the NDA in June 2013, the RLSP joined the alliance. Kushwaha had the same social base — OBC Koeris (Kushwahas) and Kurmis, and EBC Dhanuks — as Nitish, and the BJP was happy he would bring these votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The RLSP won all 3 seats it contested, but the victories of Kushwaha and Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP (which won 6 of 7 seats contested) were attributed to the wave in favour of Narendra Modi. With Nitish back in the NDA, the BJP believes it can do without Kushwaha. The ambitious RSLP leader wanted more than 3 seats in next year’s elections, while the BJP, which has committed to leaving as many seats for Nitish as it contests itself, felt it could give him 2 at best. Kushwaha’s recent record has not been scintillating — in the 2015 Assembly elections, the RLSP won only 2 of the 23 seats it contested, even though it came second in 19 others, with the margin of defeat ranging from 5,000 to 30,000 votes. It was easy for the BJP to conclude that Kushwaha had failed the “real” test and, with Nitish on its side, to decide it could do without a double dose of “K2” (Koeri-Kurmi) votes. Where Kushwaha could boost RJD, UPA The RJD-Congress combine has fallen short by 7-8% votes in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections since 2005, when Nitish’s NDA first formed the government in Bihar. Lalu and his son Tejashwi are now open to a broader alliance. They believe that if Kushwaha is able to bring 4-5% votes to the UPA and cut somewhat into Nitish’s votes, he could potentially tilt the balance. The RJD also hopes to gain from an understanding with the Left parties, former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, and Sharad Yadav’s Loktantrik Janta Dal, and from anti-incumbency against Nitish and Modi and the waning of the 2014 wave. That the otherwise warring castes, Kushwahas and Yadavs, could vote together was demonstrated in 2015, when the Nitish-Lalu alliance won 178 of 243 Assembly seats. Kushwaha’s strength in caste numbers in Bihar The impact of Kushwaha’s announcement has been blunted by the fact that one of his MPs (Dr Arun Kumar of Jahanabad) and both his Bihar MLAs have abandoned him, and his other MP, Ram Kumar Sharma of Sitamarhi, seems undecided on joining the UPA. Koeris, however, are 8% of Bihar’s population — much more numerous than Kurmis (3%), the caste to which Nitish belongs — and are spread across many Lok Sabha and Assembly seats. The RLSP’s internal surveys have identified 90 Assembly segments that have a Koeri population in excess of 35,000, and another 18 segments that have 15,000-plus. There are more than 2.5 lakh Koeris each in 18 of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha constituencies. It is probably too early to write off Kushwaha. RJD and beyond: Kushwaha’s options for the future Though Kushwaha has talked of three options (joining UPA, going alone, forging a third front with smaller parties like Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Party and Mukesh Sahni’s Vikashil Insaan Party), he has long been in talks with the RJD — both directly and through the Congress. The expected merger of Sharad Yadav’s party with RLSP will likely delay talks with RJD. But equally, the RJD may also be willing to accommodate Kushwaha soon, perhaps at the expense of some other parties. Kushwaha on his part, fancies an outside chance of being Bihar’s Chief Minister, especially if Tejashwi gets embroiled in cases.
