2025 Lion census shows 32% population rise: Why Asiatic lion’s future can’t be secured by numbers alone

Journey so far

From under 200 in the 1960s when their last home in Gir was accorded special protection, Asiatic lions have made a remarkable recovery. For most parts, this journey has been slow and steady — the population did not cross the 300-mark until 1995 when the lion broke free from the safety of the forests.

Between 1990 and 2005, the lion’s range doubled from 6,600 sq km to 13,000 sq km. But in those early days of breaking new ground, the expansion of lions’ range resulted only in a modest 26% jump in numbers, from 284 to 359.

In the next 15 years, though, as the lion once again doubled its range from 13,000 sq km to 30,000 sq km, already established satellite populations added up to record an overall jump of 88% in lion numbers from 359 to 674.

Lion Census data.

The latest estimation confirms that trajectory. However, this is only the second instance after the 2015 estimation when the population growth rate exceeded the rate of range expansion. It must also be mentioned that the absolute numbers offered without a standard error range are unusual for any scientific estimation method.

Spreading thin

The lions have colonised at least three new areas — Barda wildlife sanctuary, Jetpur and Babra-Jasdan — in the last five years. A nearly 900-strong population scattered across 358 locations strengthens the species recovery trend that made IUCN change the Asiatic Lion’s status from “critically-endangered” to “endangered” in 2008.

A closer look at the numbers, however, shows that the population growth has not been commensurate with the expansion of the lion’s range over the decades. Since 1990, the lion’s range has expanded by 430%, but the corresponding jump in numbers, at 214%, has not been half as swift.

This is because the Saurashtra peninsula has very few protected wilderness areas — Gir National Park and a few small sanctuaries such as Pania, Girnar, Mitiyala and the recently colonised Berda — for the lion to flourish.

Over decades, as these sanctuaries have neared their carrying capacity, lions wandering out for space have reached wasteland, farmland and agri-plantations, interspersed with clumps of natural vegetation tagged as forest patches.

Even on government records, only 56% of Gujarat’s 891 lions were found in forested areas. While the relevant data is missing in the latest census, the 2020 report showed that the lion’s population density drops from 15.2 per 100 sq km in forested areas to just 1.65 in non-forested areas.

Stretching tolerance

Non-forest areas close to human habitations are not the ideal habitat for a large carnivore species. A former chief wildlife warden of the state acknowledged that there are “covert cases” of retaliatory killings when lions died of electrocution, “drowning in wells” or were “shot in self-defence”.

“But unlike leopards, lions are considered Gujarat’s pride and people are generally tolerant of the species. Also, these are highly-managed animals with frequent rescues, medical care and all. That makes them somewhat used to people,” he said.

Familiarity, though, also means such lions are not wary of people. “It’s ecologically an unstable situation. Quite a few of the lions in human-dominated habitats are often aggressive to people, and there have been reports of unprovoked attacks,” veteran wildlife biologist Dr Ravi Chellam told The Indian Express.

Social carrying capacity, argued a senior Gujarat forest official who did not want to be named, also has its limits.

“People and lions can live in harmony only when they share either space or time. People can work by the day in cropland where lions roam at night. But when they come face to face too often, it’s a dangerous test of nerves,” Chellam said.

For now, a combination of awareness campaigns, media sensitisation and timely compensation for livestock losses is keeping peace. What has also helped is the relative availability of wild prey, such as boars, outside forested areas due to limited hunting for bushmeat in the state.

But many lions are also dependent on livestock, including those that they do not have to hunt. “Very frequently, these lions are feeding on dumped livestock carcasses that also attract village dogs. This makes these lions vulnerable to disease infections,” Dr Chellam cautioned.

Future of the pride

It’s been 12 years since the Supreme Court set a six-month deadline for shifting lions from Gujarat to Madhya Pradesh, and seven years since Gujarat assured the apex court that this order would be implemented.

In September 2020, the initial proposal under Project Lion, which was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 15 that year, identified seven sites, including three each in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, for relocation.

Then, in July 2022, the government told the Lok Sabha that the scope of assessing the suitability of a new habitat for lions was limited to potential sites only within Gujarat. On their own, lions have recently reached one of those sites — Barda wildlife sanctuary. But the sanctuary’s less than 200 sq km expanse can accommodate only a few animals.

As potential targets of doubling the lion population to 2,000 are being tossed around, the Asiatic lion needs quality forest habitats away from human settlements to safeguard against potential conflict and epidemic breakouts.