The results of the 2022 national survey released last week have come up with a leopard population of 13,874 (12,616-15,132). This is a gain of 75% from the 7,910 (6,566-9,181) estimated in 2014. However, a more realistic comparison should consider the 2018 figures, when the number of camera points increased nearly three times to 26,838 from 9,777 in 2014. As a result, the number of leopards photographed also increased from 1,647 in 2014 to 5,240 in 2018, leading to a more realistic overall estimate. The 2022 study deployed cameras at 32,803 locations and reported an 8% jump over the 12,852 (12,172-13,535) estimated in 2018. In the common areas covered in both surveys, the rise in numbers is a more modest 4.4%. Either way, this may project a perception of stability with marginal growth in the leopard population. But the spotted cat is still not out of the woods because, ironically, that is where they are. A tale of two populations Every third leopard estimated in the latest survey is inside protected areas — national parks, sanctuaries or tiger reserves. According to Jacobson et al. (2016), protected areas account for only 11% of the leopard's range in India. This means 33% of the estimated population is in 11% of its range. Areas outside these protected islands report a lower density — 67% of the population in 89% of the leopard’s range. But leopards in the peripheries of protected forests also make use of those areas. Data on leopards that are either inside or using each of India’s 44 tiger reserves offers a window to understand the contrasting fortunes of two distinct leopard populations — one that uses the country’s most protected forests and those in fringe or non-forest areas away from tiger reserves. The 2018 study found 5,325 of the estimated 12,852 leopards in and around India's tiger reserves. In 2022, number of leopards in and around tiger reserves climbed by 21% to 6,440. In contrast, number of leopards away from tiger reserves fell by 1% from 7,527 to 7,434 (see chart) in those four years. The ‘all-India’ surveys are limited to tiger states and do not account for potential leopard areas such as Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Ladakh and arid areas of Rajasthan. But the general trend is unmistakable and underlines the impact of conflict and poaching on leopards in unprotected areas, which are their mainstay. Cats on the margins The most widely distributed big cat, the leopard’s historical range spanned across 3,50,00,000 sq km — almost one-fourth of the earth’s land surface, covering all of sub-Saharan and north Africa, nearly all of Asia and the Russian Far East. In India, the seemingly ubiquitous cat once occupied every corner of the land except the Thar desert and the Sundarban mangroves. Over time, it has surrendered around 70% of its Indian range and also experienced, notes the latest survey report, a substantial human-induced population decline over the last decade. Against severe odds, the uniquely adaptable leopard is still found outside protected areas in agro-pastoral landscapes, plantations and near human habitations in both rural and urban settings. Making its stand even outside the typical forested habitat, the Indian subspecies Panthera pardus fusca remains the largest surviving leopard population outside Africa. But the same adaptability that enabled leopards to live in closer proximity to human populations than any other big cat has also made the species vulnerable to poaching and conflict. Poached and persecuted leopards in India According to Raza et al (2012), 4 leopards were being poached weekly in the preceding decade. Seizure data between 2010 and 2012 accounted for at least 466 leopards and 66 tigers — at a 1:7 ratio. That seizure would also amount to at least 4000 kg of bones — much in demand as traditional Chinese medicine and fetching a higher price than pelts in the international market. Records maintained by the Wildlife Protection Society of India (WPSI) show that over 5,500 leopards have been poached since 1994. In the last five years since 2019, the count exceeds 800. Occasional mega-seizures underline the reality that only a fraction of poached animals are ever accounted for. For example, a rare haul in 2000 at Khaga in the Fatehpur district of Uttar Pradesh included 70 leopard skins and 18,000 leopard claws, accounting for at least 1,000 poached animals. The number of tiger skin and claws recovered in the raid was 4 and 132, respectively. As victims of conflict, leopards are often poisoned and electrocuted for predating on livestock. More frequently, they are captured under public pressure either to be locked up in cages or be released in faraway forests where they are supposed to belong. Like all cats, the translocated leopards head home through unfamiliar territories, run into people and trigger fresh conflict. In the early 2000s, Maharashtra caused a chain of human and animal casualties by randomly capturing and shuffling leopards around. But few lessons have been learnt. According to a 2023 study, neighbouring Gujarat captured and released into the wild 263 leopards 834 times over a decade around Gir National Park. In Karnataka, according to a 2020 study, 357 leopards were captured during 2009–2016, primarily for livestock depredation (38.1%), anxiety caused due to sightings near human habitations (13.7%), and entering human dwellings (10.9%). The ninth life Beyond poaching and conflict, notes the latest all-India survey report, habitat fragmentation caused by activities such as the development of linear infrastructure and mining without adequate mitigation measures poses significant threats to leopards. A 2020 study found that India’s leopard populations suffered a 90% drop in the Deccan plateau, the Shivalik belt and the Himalayan terai areas roughly around the beginning of the 20th century, while the Western Ghats population took a 75% hit two centuries ago. Nevertheless, the species still retain high genetic variation across India. The spotted cat has long mastered the art of survival. But going by the trends in the all-India surveys, the leopard’s future in its mainstay outside protected forests hinges on our perception of conflict and our policies to safeguard the species against development and poaching.
