Explained: Why BJP’s victory may trigger the fall of Congress-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka

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The BJP seems set to sweep the northern, central and coastal parts of the state, leaving the alliance with leads in merely four seats in the south — Bangalore Rural, Hassan, Chamarajnagar and Bangalore Central. In the Mandya seat, the Independent candidate Sumalatha has established a narrow lead over Karnataka chief minister H D Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil Kumaraswamy.

BJP big guns like Ananth Kumar Hegde, Shobha Karandlaje and Nalin Kateel are all set for comfortable victories in coastal Karnataka.

The big victory for the BJP is likely to trigger the countdown for the fall of the Congress-JD(S) alliance government in Karnataka.

The JD(S), which fielded three members of the family of Devegowda in the seven seats given to the party by the Congress, is likely to win only one seat. Devegowda’s grandson Prajwal Revanna established a clear lead in the family borough of Hassan. Devegowda himself trailed the BJP’s G S Basavaraju in Tumkur by a narrow margin.

Ahead of the polls, BJP state president B S Yeddyurappa had stated that the BJP would win as many as 22 seats on the back of the popularity of PM Modi, the Balakot strikes and the anger against the coalition in Karnataka.

In the bypolls for two Assembly seats, the Congress looks set to win the Kundgol seat while the BJP looks set to win Chincholi.

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The BJP, which has 104 seats in the state Assembly, is looking at ousting the coalition which has the support of 115 MLAs by engineering defections from the Congress and JD(S) in the aftermath of the LS poll.

The simple majority in the 224-member state Assembly is 113 and the BJP is expected to initially try to reduce the strength of the house by a dozen to claim majority.