RLD ditches INDIA for NDA: What this means for the party, the two alliances

How much will the RLD’s exit hurt the INDIA bloc’s chances, and what will the party bring to the NDA? We explain.

RLD’s traditional support base

The RLD has traditionally been a farmers’ party, with strong support among the Jat community. Jayant Chaudhary is the grandson of Chaudhary Charan Singh, former Prime Minister and arguably the tallest farmer leader of North India. The RLD was founded by Ajit Singh, Charan Singh’s son, and enjoys popularity in around 15 districts of western Uttar Pradesh, such as Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Meerut, Bijnor, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Mathura, Aligarh, Hathras, Agra and Moradabad.

Charan Singh, though a Jat himself, commanded the loyalty of the entire class of farmers, particularly the middle peasantry drawn from the Muslim, Ahir (Yadav), Jat, Gujjar and Rajput communities. Two generations down, Jayant Chaudhary can depend on Jat and Muslim votes.

The party has had an uneventful decade in politics, with its traditional vote base split. It lost all three seats it contested as part of the SP-BSP-RLD alliance in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, finishing second to the BJP in each. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the party won eight seats out of 33 it contested in alliance with the SP.

How RLD will benefit the NDA

The RLD has long ceased to be the potent, dependable force it once was, and even its traditional vote bank does not back it en masse. Thus, the major benefit it brings to the NDA is not in terms of votes, but of perception — that the BJP-led alliance has managed to further chip away at the ‘united Opposition’ bloc. After Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Jayant Chaudhary is the second leader to ditch INDIA in the electorally crucial Hindi heartland states.

As far as votes are concerned, the BJP commands Jat support anyway, but it has recently faced some criticism from the community over farm issues and the wrestlers’ protest. Alliance with RLD can help it consolidate these votes.

As The Indian Express reported earlier, according to BJP leaders, an alliance with the RLD could brighten its chances in west UP. A ground survey conducted by the party had placed it behind in seats like Bijnor, Amroha, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Fatehpur Sikri and Hathras. This is where the RLD support will come in handy.

How RLD’s exit will impact INDIA

As talks of the RLD’s departure gathered steam, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi decided to cut short his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in Uttar Pradesh, by skipping western UP. While the Congress has said this is in view of board exams, the decision is being tied to the fact that the party has lost its ally in the region.

However, the Congress might end up benefiting from RLD’s move, as it can now ask SP for more seats to contest from in Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress-SP alliance will now look to woo Muslim voters in the region, to counter the likely Jat consolidation behind the NDA. The RLD exit comes as a prestige blow to INDIA, increasing the perception that the bloc is struggling to keep its house in order.

What RLD stands to gain by joining the NDA

An RLD leader had earlier told The Indian Express, “The BJP is giving us four seats for the Lok Sabha polls, one Union ministry, and two state ministers in UP. There are some issues on some seats but they will be worked out.”

While opponents have said voters will punish the RLD for compromising on its ideology by joining the BJP, the party is no stranger to switching sides, with Jayant’s father, Ajit Singh, too frequently changing camps. The RLD had contested the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with the BJP and won five seats. However, it dumped the saffron camp and joined the UPA, with Ajit Singh becoming Civil Aviation Minister in 2011.

The BJP government’s recent announcement of Bharat Ratna for Charan Singh was seen as an outreach towards the party, which was technically in the Opposition then. After the announcement, Jayant had posted on X, “Dil jeet liya (they’ve won my heart.”