Russia-Ukraine war: What US pausing aid will mean for Kyiv, Moscow, and Europe

Here’s what Trump’s decision will mean for Ukraine, Europe, and Russia.

What Trump’s aid move means for Ukraine

The Germany-based thinktank, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, has been tracking aid provided to Ukraine from various quarters. According to its data, since 2022, while Europe has given the most money to Ukraine when financial and humanitarian assistance is counted (132 billion euros, as against the USA’s 114 billion euros), the US is the single largest military donor.

It has also given Ukraine heavy weaponry, such as 45 T-72 and 31 M1A2 Abrams tanks, 352 Bradley vehicles, 201 Howitzers, 39 HIMARS rocket launchers and 17 air defense systems such as NASAMS, Patriot and HAWK batteries since January 2022, Reuters reported. On Tuesday (March 4), Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Patriot was the only system that could help repel ballistic strikes from Russia.

It is not immediately clear what the “pause” will mean. According to AP, the decision appears to halt new deliveries of arms approved under the Joe Biden administration, but it is not known if delivery of ammunition for weapons already in Ukraine will also be affected.

Shmyhal said Ukraine can maintain the situation on the frontline for sometime. Also, new weapons not coming in will not pinch immediately, as Ukraine has some stocks and Europe has promised to step up. However, what will hurt Ukraine the most is the absence of US intelligence and reconnaissance abilities. No European power can match US capabilities of intelligence gathering and sharing. Also, Ukraine is heavily dependent on Elon Musk’s Starlink for communication services.

For Europe

After enjoying decades of security thanks to the USA’s enormous military power, Europe is suddenly waking up to the possibility of having to defend itself. In terms of money, stepping up aid to Ukraine should not be a very big problem, if political will in the face of domestic challenges can be mustered up. As the Kiel Institute says, “Germany, the UK, and the US have mobilised less than 0.2 percent of their GDP per year to support Ukraine, while other rich donor countries like France, Italy, or Spain only allocated about 0.1 percent of their annual GDP.”

But the larger threat is the possibility of an emboldened Russia and the US retreating from its security role. Even if the bigger European countries can beef up their armies, coming together effectively will be a major challenge, as the leadership role in planning and coordination has always been played by the US.

In fact, Ukraine’s military as present is very valuable to Europe as a whole, as it is battle-hardened and familiar with Russian forces.

For Russia

The war at present is stuck in a stalemate of attrition, though Russia has a slight advantage. If US support does not come and Russia ends up winning, it is not clear what that victory will look like.

However, Russia has lost a number of personnel, and a ceasefire is in its interests too. “At its current rate, Russian combat losses since the 2022 invasion are on track to exceed 1 million troops by midyear—a challenging statistic for Putin, who has resisted calling for a second mobilisation,” according to an article by the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

For a ceasefire, Russia wants a demilitarised and neutral Ukraine, and for Kyiv to cede territories in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk.