Nawaz Sharif back in Pakistan: What this means for the former PM, his country, and Imran Khan

The former PM’s downfall from power came after he lost crucial support of Pakistan’s military and was accused of corruption. His repatriation signals that the military, partly due to lack of options, is willing to give him another try and help them thwart Imran Khan and his party from coming to power.

The corruption charges

Sharif began his third stint as Pakistan’s PM in 2013. His reign helped create relative economic stability in the country. The leader was able to complete a handful of large infrastructure projects and reduced the crippling power outages that have long troubled Pakistan.

Supporters of Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif dance on a traditional drum beat as they arrive to attend a welcoming rally for their leader, in Lahore, Pakistan, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023. (AP/PTI)

Three years later, however, the leak of Panama Papers landed him in the soup. The documents showed that Sharif and his family had amassed vast offshore wealth and assets including residential properties in London.

Although the former PM denied any wrongdoing, the Supreme Court disqualified him from the prime minister’s office in June 2017, declaring him dishonest. As a result, he had to step down from office.

The fallout for Sharif didn’t end there. About a year later, the Supreme Court imposed a lifetime ban on him from taking part in politics or holding any public office in a first-of-its-kind decision. The situation got worse after, in December 2018, another court convicted Sharif in a corruption case and sentenced him to seven years in prison and fined $25 million. The judgement came just months after the former PM’s party lost to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) — the party of Sharif’s main political rival, Imran Khan — in the general elections.

In November 2019, Sharif was allowed to leave jail on health grounds and he flew to London, only to return around four years later.

My leader Nawaz Sharif will be among you today, InshaAllah. He is coming back to unite this nation, not to divide it further. He is coming back to spread love among his people, not hatred. He is coming back to help you become a productive citizen, not ammunition for any party or… pic.twitter.com/AaaKoupYxw

— Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz) October 21, 2023

Fall out with Pakistan’s military

The corruption charges against the PML-N supremo weren’t the only reason behind his downfall. While in office, Sharif’s relationship with the top generals of the powerful Pakistan military had soured.

According to reports, Sharif and the military didn’t see eye to eye on some foreign policies, including ties with India — Sharif is known for advocating improved relations with the neighbouring state. There were differences between the army and Sharif on issues like terrorist attacks carried out by Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba in Pathankot and Uri. The politician also locked horns with the army generals over the day-to-day governance of Pakistan.

Ultimately, the military decided to remove the thorn on its side and orchestrated Sharif’s ouster. Not only this, it propped up Imran Khan as the PML-N leader’s main challenger and helped the former win the 2018 general elections, according to many analysts.

The return

The bonhomie between the military and Imran didn’t last for long. Last year, the PTI chief was ousted as prime minister in a parliamentary vote of no-confidence after differences with the military over security appointments. Hundreds of cases, including that of terrorism and corruption, were filed against the cricketer-turned-politician. A majority of his party leaders defected, went into hiding or were arrested. Imran himself was sent to prison on August 5.

Chairman Imran Khan had predicted this in his speech last week:

“مجھے گرفتار کر لیں پھر بھی تحریک انصاف کا امیدوار جیتے گا”.

Today’s Local Govt Elections in KP only reinforces his stance and proves that after Allah, the true power lies with the citizens.#PTISMT pic.twitter.com/RkoGmxJmn3

— Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) August 6, 2023

Despite all the trouble, the politician remains immensely popular — his approval rating is significantly higher than that of any other major politician, reaching 60% in June, according to a Gallup Pakistan poll, The New York Times reported.

Therefore, to beat Imran’s party in the upcoming general elections, the military has paved the way for Sharif’s return to Pakistan, many analysts suggest. Earlier this week, the High Court in Islamabad granted Sharif protective bail, which means that authorities cannot detain him when he appears before judges next week to seek an extension of his temporary bail.

The Pakistani army is pinning hopes on Sharif’s experience and charisma to turn things around for the incumbent PML-N government, led by his brother Shehbaz, and ensure PTI’s defeat in the upcoming general elections. The current dispensation doesn’t enjoy much public support as the country continues to suffer from a battered economy and skyrocketing inflation.

“Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan signals his hopes for a fourth term as prime minister. He is the leader of his party and had run things from London even as his brother was prime minister from April 2022 to August 2023,” Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, told DW.

“He is the more charismatic of the two and would be the key to reviving his party’s political fortunes.”

But to run for office, Sharif must have his corruption-related convictions overturned. His appeals have been pending since he left the country in 2019.