Why July 21 was the warmest day on record, and what may happen in the next few days

In a statement, Carlo Buontempo, C3S Director, said, “What is truly staggering is how large the difference is between the temperature of the last 13 months and the previous temperature records. We are now in truly uncharted territory and as the climate keeps warming, we are bound to see new records being broken in future months and years.”

Here is a look at what caused this record-breaking daily global average temperature.

What led to the record-breaking temperature?

The main driver behind the extreme warming is the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane, and water vapour trap the Sun’s energy in the Earth’s system before it escapes to space, causing warming.

Since the industrial revolution, human activities like burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gases have released unprecedented levels of such gases. As a result, the planet has warmed rapidly, especially in recent decades.

In 2023, greenhouse gas concentrations reached the highest levels ever recorded in the atmosphere, according to C3S and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2023 were 2.4 parts per million (ppm) higher than in 2022; methane concentrations increased by 11 parts per billion (ppb).

Apart from this, above-average temperatures over large parts of Antarctica have also contributed to warmer daily average global temperatures, according to C3S. However, warmer temperatures in Antarctica at this time of the year are not unusual.

The continent is also witnessing below-average sea ice extent, leading to much above-average temperatures over parts of the Southern Ocean. This also has played a role in raising the global average temperatures.

What happens next?

According to C3S, the daily global average temperature is expected to further increase and peak around 22 or 23 July 2024 and then go down, but with possible further fluctuations in the coming weeks.

So far, 2024 has been on track to become the warmest year, breaking the record of 2023, which was 1.48 degree Celsius warmer than the average of the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level and 0.17 degree Celsius warmer than 2016.

Since June 2023, every month has now been ranked as the planet’s hottest since records began, compared with the corresponding month in previous years.