Expert Explains: China and Pakistan attending, what India can hope for at SCO meet

The 10-member grouping is the world’s largest regional organisation by geographical area and population, with anti-West allies China and Russia at its centre.

Ashok Sajjanhar, a former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden, and Latvia, explains why the SCO matters to India, and what to expect from the upcoming summit in Pakistan.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar being welcomed upon his arrival in Islamabad, Pakistan. (PTI)

First, why is the SCO important for India?

The Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan are very important for India. The region is part of India’s extended neighbourhood, and India has strong civilisational and cultural links with the region that go back to the time of Emperor Ashoka. The SCO provides a platform where New Delhi can interact with all these countries at multiple levels of government.

India has very important interests in this region — for security, energy, and connectivity needs, and for trade and investment. India imports 85% of its energy requirements, and Turkmenistan has the world’s fourth largest reserves of natural gas. Kazakhstan is the world’s largest producer of uranium ore. India also holds military exercises with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

What can India hope to gain from the SCO, given that China and Pakistan are its members?

Before India became part of the SCO, many had asked if there was any benefit for us in joining a China-dominated alliance. As Ambassador to Kazakhstan (from 2007 to 2010), I had strongly advocated for India to join the SCO.

My point was that we need to be there simply because China is there. The Central Asian region is important for India, and if there is a forum where China is actively engaging with them, India should be present too. India should be in a position to face China, rather than withdraw itself.

Even with the China factor, there is a lot the SCO brings to the table for us, in terms of trade and connectivity, but equally importantly, for security. India is part of the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), which is important in our security calculus.

Pakistan has recently seen terrorist attacks on Chinese nationals. Is the issue of terrorism likely to feature in a big way in the discussions?

Terrorism has always been a major focus area for the SCO. The RATS holds meetings and exchanges information. According to their reports, countries have been able to counter about 500 terrorist operations as a result of the information that has been shared.

Countries other than India too are afflicted by terrorism. Russia saw a major terror attack in March. Following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Central Asian nations fear that various militant groups will start spreading out to their territories.

What are some of the major issues likely to be taken up in the October 15-16 meeting?

With Iran and Belarus as members, the two wars being fought right now, Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas, are likely to come up.

Terrorism will be one of the important aspects of deliberations.

Last year, when India held the chairmanship of SCO, a lot of positive initiatives were floated to unite various members, such as focusing on traditional medicines, on the use of millets, on startups, on Buddhist heritage, etc. India will be expecting that some of these initiatives are taken up for further action.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had coined an acronym for the way we should approach the SCO. This was “SECURE”, where S stands for security, E for economic development, C for connectivity, U for unity, R for respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, and the second E for environmental protection.

There is another aspect, which India had flagged at G20 too, which is digital public infrastructure. India has been very willing to share its experience on the digitalisation of the economy as a global good, and will do so at the SCO as well.

While SCO is a multilateral forum, is any movement in India-Pakistan ties likely?

India’s position has been that talks and terrorism don’t go together. India is not likely to give a confusing signal, both internally and to the world, that it is flip-flopping on policy.

There had been calls for Jaishankar to not travel to Pakistan, but by choosing to participate, India has sent out a strong signal that it takes the SCO seriously.

And what about India-China ties?

India and China have indeed talked on the sidelines of multilateral platforms.

In June 2017, when the Doklam confrontation was ongoing, Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Astana on the sidelines of the SCO summit, and were able to arrive at what is known as the Astana Consensus, that differences should not become disputes.

In 2020, after the Galwan incident, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh met his Chinese counterpart when he was in Moscow for the SCO meeting.

When the SCO heads of government meeting takes place, a senior minister travels, which is the case this time. From China, the prime minister will attend, who is not Jaishankar’s counterpart. So talks this time do not seem likely.

India is a member of both the SCO and the Quad, which is a primarily anti-China grouping. How important is it for India to manage its relationships with both its Asian and Western partners?

This is in line with India’s policy of multi-alignment. India can collaborate with the Quad countries for ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific — in terms of ensuring that there is rule of law and freedom of navigation and overflight in the region.

This should not be in conflict with the SCO, the membership, objectives, and manner of evolution of which are different. India is one of the few countries that can straddle North-South, East-West divides. It is very important for India to maintain this unique position and to build on it.

Ashok Sajjanhar, IFS, was the ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden, and Latvia. He is currently president, Institute of Global Studies, New Delhi. He spoke to Yashee