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Room AC efficiency standards in India must be strengthened to avoid severe power shortages: New report

India could expect the addition of 130-150 million new room air conditioners over the next 10 years, says a study conducted by India Energy and Climate Centre at the University of California, Berkeley.

With urban AC ownership still at just 10 per cent and rising fast, the authors stressed that decisions made now will shape India’s energy future.

Doubling the energy efficiency of room air-conditioners in India could result in savings of up to Rs 2.2 lakh crore ($26 billion) for the consumers over the next 10 years, and avoid severe power shortages during the summer season, a new study has found.

The study by India Energy and Climate Centre (IECC) at the University of California, Berkeley, says India could expect the addition of 130-150 million new room air conditioners over the next 10 years, and this would require effective management of power demands.

“Without policy intervention, ACs alone could drive 120 GW of peak power demand by 2030 and 180 GW by 2035, nearly 30 per cent of the projected total electricity demand by that time. This growth is outpacing India’s power supply and could lead to serious electricity shortages as early as 2026,” said Nikit Abhyankar, the study’s lead author and UC Berkeley faculty.

“India’s rapid economic growth, industrialisation, and urbanisation are driving electricity demand at a pace far exceeding expectations. One of the key contributors to this surge is the increased use of ACs, which households tend to purchase once they cross a certain income threshold. Rising temperatures and extreme heat events – such as the 2024 heatwave – cause further increase in AC usage and strain the power system. Until now, India has largely managed to meet peak electricity demand without widespread shortages. However, in the coming years, demand growth will likely outpace supply, potentially resulting in more systemic and widespread power shortages as early as 2026. ACs could be a make-or-break for the power grid. However, with smart policy, we can turn this into a win for consumers, manufacturers, and the grid,” Abhyankar told The Indian Express.

He said they did detailed engineering as well as techno-economic assessments to find out how much electricity each AC would save if India revised its AC efficiency standards. Room ACs in India are required to carry energy efficiency labels, rated from one to five stars, with one-star serving as the de-facto Minimum Energy Performance Standard (MEPS).

The report recommends updating the country’s MEPS, beginning with a 2027 revision that raises the 1-star label to ISEER 5.0 – equivalent to today’s 5-star level – and tightening standards every three years. This alone could avoid 10 GW of shortages by 2028, 23 GW by 2030, and 60 GW by 2035 – equivalent to 120 large power plants, according to the report. ISEER, or Indian Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio, is a metric used in India to measure the efficiency of air conditioners and heat pumps.

“Contrary to the conventional wisdom, efficiency does not make ACs more expensive. Globally and in India, MEPS revision often goes hand in hand with lower AC prices, thanks to economies of scale, streamlined supply chains, and market competition. In fact, the study confirms that energy efficiency is not the primary driver of AC prices in India,” Abhyankar said.

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Even with slightly higher upfront prices, they could deliver net savings of Rs 66,000 crore – Rs 2,25,000 crore ($8 billion – $26 billion) by 2035, paying for itself within two to three years through lower electricity bills.

“A common concern with efficient ACs is that they might be more expensive,” said Amol Phadke, co-author and UC Berkeley faculty. “But our analysis of global markets, including India, shows that efficiency is not the main factor driving retail prices,” he added.

The report also calls for updating AC test procedures to better reflect India’s humid climate, where comfort depends not just on cooling but also on moisture removal.

“In places like Mumbai or Chennai, dryness is as important as coolness,” said Nihar Shah, co-author and IECC lead on cooling.

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“ACs that remove moisture from the air can keep people comfortable while using only half as much electricity. Efficient dehumidification is a critical challenge for industry,” Shah added.

With urban AC ownership still at just 10 per cent and rising fast, the authors stressed that decisions made now will shape India’s energy future. “Every AC installed today locks in future electricity use,” said Abhyankar. “We have a narrow window to ensure they’re efficient. If we get this right, India can stay cool, avoid shortages,” he added.

Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions. ... Read More

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