Monsoon to hit city by June 6: Met

Director weather central Dr P C S Rao told The Indian Express that there is likely to be no large deviations in the pattern. “There will be no anomalies and in all probability it should be on time,” he said.

The monsoon onset is being delayed in Pune since last six years. “Except in 2008,when the onset was on June 7,and in 2006 when it was on May 31,the other years witnessed a delay. Last year,it was on June 21,” said Rao. In 2007,the onset was on June 18. In 2005,rains arrived on June 19 and in 2004,the date was June 10.

The speed with which the systems travel depend on conducive weather pattern like depressions or low pressures in the Arabian Sea. The normal onset of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea is May 20 after which it touches Kerala by June 1.

“As per our calculation based on an indigenously developed statistical model,the south-west monsoons should arrive in Kerala by May 30. However,this prediction has a model error of four days which means it could arrive four days before or after the predicted date. Considering all these aspects,we could say that Pune can expect a timely monsoon by June 6,” said Dr Rao.

Last year,cyclone Aila that hit the Bay of Bengal in the last week of May delayed the monsoon arrival.