Drought-like conditions likely, Fadnavis tells Maharashtra Cabinet

“There is a possibility of El Nino impact on rainfall during monsoon in Maharashtra. It is advisable to be prepared for drought-like situations in the state,” he is learnt to have said at the cabinet meeting.

The Indian Express has learned that Fadnavis’ comment was in the context of preparing the state in terms of availability of water as well as to mitigate possible impact on agriculture due to drought.

Fadnavis’ remarks were surprising considering the fact that weather agencies across the world have not yet predicted the development of El Nino yet. El Nino, the unusual warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean, does tend to suppress rainfall over the Indian sub-continent during the monsoon season, but it not a one-to-one correlation. In any case, the development of El Nino itself was not yet certain.

The surface waters in equatorial Pacific Ocean sometimes get unusually warmer and, at other times, unusually colder due to complex ocean-atmosphere interactions. Both these states have an impact on global weather phenomena.

As of now, the surface waters are colder than normal, a state described as La Nina. In fact, this state has been continuing for almost three years now, making it the longest persisting La Nina event. But the La Nina conditions are weakening now, and neutral conditions are likely to prevail for the next few months, according to the latest forecast by the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States.

Neutral conditions in the Pacific are no indicator of the amount of rainfall that is expected over India during the monsoon season. In any case, it is too early to predict the monsoon rainfall. The India Meteorological Department makes the first monsoon forecast in the month of April.

“It is too early to predict anything about the monsoon rainfall right now, not just over Maharashtra but the entire country,” IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told The Indian Express.

Maharashtra has witnessed excess rains in last two years leading to record breaking sugarcane production in large parts of the state. So much so that demands were made to extend the crushing season of sugar mills to ensure all sugarcane was crushed. An official from the state’s Relief and Rehabilitation department, while acknowledging that it was too early to say anything about monsoon rains, said it is normally seen that El Nino years result in lower amounts of rainfall. “Whether the entire monsoon season will be affected, or only the latter part of it, is still uncertain,” he said.

In the absence of any warning of the development of El Nino conditions, Fadnavis’s statement remark could only be seen as an advice to the state government to remain prepared for the worst conditions. Data from the Irrigation department shows that the reservoirs in the state presently have 70.16 per cent of their total capacity stored. Last year, the storage level around this time was 75.59 per cent.