Mulayam-Kalyan handshake on test,so is Maya grip

The fourth phase of elections that will see polling in 18 constituencies of Uttar Pradesh is most crucial for Samajwadi Party national president Mulayam Singh Yadav.

The fourth phase of elections that will see polling in 18 constituencies of Uttar Pradesh is most crucial for Samajwadi Party national president Mulayam Singh Yadav. Though the battle is on his home turf,this time he needed the support of his new friend and the BJPs erstwhile poster boy Kalyan Singh to go the distance,and the results will show how far this alliance has been successful. With the fates of Mulayam,son Akhilesh and Kalyan all to be decided on Thursday,it was only in the run-up to this phase that Mulayam and Kalyan campaigned together.

While the BSP won just one seat in 2004 in this area,compared to the SPs nine,the Assembly results of 2007 showed Mayawati had made deep inroads into Mulayam country. However,whether that translates into seats in this election depends largely on the individual strengths of the BSP candidates rather than the party supremo. Knowing that,Mayawati has fielded old SP warhorses from many of the seats.

In fact,what was clear in these constituencies was that the BSP chief no longer seemed the force she did in 2007,attracting disparate communities for her spectacular victory. After her two-year rule,most of her candidates found they could not rely on Mayawatis charisma alone to attract voters from communities besides Dalits. They were left using their own network and resources.

Another alliance whose strength will be put to the test is the BJP-Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD),which was forged at the last minute. In 2004,the SP had won two of its seats in alliance with the RLD. The Congress and BJP had won three seats each. Most of the seats in contention have a sizeable presence of urban voters,Jats,Yadavs,and Lodh-Rajputs,most of whom are not considered BSP voters.

Though Muslims also have a sizeable presence,the BSP doesnt appear to be their first choice. The most striking example is Etah,Kalyans constituency,where a small National Lokhind Party has emerged as the favourite choice of some Muslims.

Even upper-caste Brahmins,who sided with the BSP in large numbers in the last elections,dont appear to be favouring the party.

Seats where the Kalyan-Mulayam handshake would be tested include Etah,Mainpuri,Kannauj,Firozabad,Fatehpur Sikri,Farrukhabad,Etawah and Aligarh.

Story continues below this ad

Though Mulayam is comfortable in Mainpuri,Kalyans Etah is crucial for the Samajwadi Party chief to prove that he retains the support of Muslims and Yadavs.

The BSP candidate here is Devendra Yadav,who was elected in 2004 on an SP ticket. Kalyan will help Mulayam with Lodh votes in Mainpuri.

The BSP seems to be in a good position in Gautam Buddha Nagar,Etawah,Muzaffarnagar and Meerut. The Congress is trying hard to retain Mathura,Ghaziabad and Aligarh,with delimitation changing the map of these constituencies. The BJP-RLD alliance can hope to gain in this region at the cost of the Congress and SP.

In Aligarh,in a delicious irony,a Muslim may become an MP after a long,long time courtesy the SPs decision to field a Muslim candidate and the votes Kalyan is swinging for him.

Story continues below this ad

In Mathura,despite a tough fight,RLD leader Ajit Singhs son Jayant is rallying the Jat votes behind him invoking grandfather Chaudhary Charan Singhs name.

However,for one person in particular,Thursdays contest is as much a personal as a political prestige issue. For his first Lok Sabha win ever,BJP chief Rajnath Singhs hope is a split in the Muslim vote (here too,the BSP may not have been successful in wooing the community despite using senior leader Naseemuddin Siddiquis services).

The RLD alliance will take him part of the way.

Elections 2009
Uttar Pradesh
Phase-IV
18 seats
Key candidates
MULAYAM SINGH YADAV,SP (Mainpuri)
AKHILESH YADAV,SP (Kannauj)
KALYAN SINGH,Ind (Etah)
RAJNATH SINGH,BJP (Ghaziabad)

Stay updated with the latest - Click here to follow us on Instagram