India may see higher infection rate from BF.7 but severity and deaths to remain low: Report

The research suggests that the Omicron variant will show low pathogenicity and death rate due to the instability of their key structural proteins and low capacity to produce pro-inflammatory cytokines and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in the patients that cause cytokine storms.

The research has been published in the International Journal of Inflammation. (File)

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In their research paper, an international research group, consisting of scientists from India, Brazil, the UK, the USA, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Serbia and Switzerland said India may see a higher infection rate from the Omicron sub variant BF.7 in the coming days but the severity and mortality rate would probably remain very low.

Indian-origin scientist, Dr Debmalya Barh, a professor in bioinformatics and precision health at the Department of Genetics, Ecology and Evolution, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Brazil and a honorary scientist at the Institute of Integrative Omics and Applied Biotechnology (IIOAB), Purba Medinipur, West Bengal, who led the research, said, “Concerning the Indian scenario, we may see a higher infection rate from BF.7 and XBB in the coming days. However, as the SARS-CoV-2 is gradually losing its pathogenicity, the immunity of Indians is better compared to other populations due to several reasons including our food, habit, having vaccinated the majority of the population, and development of a certain level of herd immunity. We may not see a higher number of severe cases and deaths in India. However, it would be wrong to think that Covid-19 is over. Hence, complete vaccination, adherence to COVID protocols and regulations, wearing masks in public places, restrictions on international travel, conducting genome surveillance, and arrangement of medical facilities for any kind of eventuality are very important.”

Read | Amid Omicron’s BF.7 scare, when should you get a Covid-19 test done (and which one)?

The research has been published in the International Journal of Inflammation.

The research suggests that the Omicron variant will show low pathogenicity and death rate due to the instability of their key structural proteins and low capacity to produce pro-inflammatory cytokines and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in the patients that cause cytokine storms. Pro-inflammatory cytokines play a critical role in modulating the immune system and severity of Covid-19. Cytokines are small proteins that are crucial in controlling the growth and activity of other cells and blood cells of the immune system .

“Although, currently the sub-variants BF.7 and XBB are infecting millions of people in different countries, as per this research finding, there may not be much severity and deaths. However, it will depend on the population and their immunity and other major clinical determinants. The research suggests that Omicron will show low pathogenicity and death rate due to its mutation-driven increasing instability of key structural proteins and low capacity to produce pro-inflammatory cytokines and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in the patients that cause cytokine storms. Omicron also has the potential to produce more anti-inflammatory interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) and interleukin-4 (IL-4) compared to other pre-Omicron variants and therefore, it is not causing much severity,” Dr Barh explained.

Read | Avoid panic on Omicron sub-variant XBB 1.5, focus more on genome sequencing: Top experts

The researchers have used genomics, reverse vaccinology and structural biology-based approaches for their findings.

“Super-transmissibility with decreased disease severity is a typical characteristic of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. To understand this phenomenon, we used various bioinformatic approaches to analyse randomly selected genome sequences of the Gamma, Delta, and Omicron variants submitted to the NCBI (National Center for Biotechnology Information) in the United States from December 15 to 31, 2021,” he added.

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Explaining further, he said, “The Corona variants are gradually decreasing their pathogenicity but increasing their antigenicity (the ability to produce anti SARS-COV-2 antibody in infected persons) and transmissibility from Wuhan to Omicron. Since the antigenicity of Omicron is highest compared to other variants, it may be the best candidate to develop a vaccine and those who have been exposed to Omicron have naturally received probably the best vaccine against Covid-19.”

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