Dengue in Delhi: Not ‘epidemic’ but high for the time of year

The statistics do make you sit up. August alone has seen 477 cases against 11 and 142 cases in the last two years, respectively.

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The dengue ‘season’ usually picks up from September, and cases peak in October-November. Once the temperature dips, the virus dissipates.

It’s that time of the year again. The pleasant autumn weather brings with it annual diseases, the most dreaded of which has become dengue. If you’ve been in Delhi the last three weeks, chances are you have had words like ‘outbreak’ and ‘epidemic’ thrown at you.

The statistics do make you sit up. August alone has seen 477 cases against 11 and 142 cases in the last two years, respectively. A total of 530 patients have already tested positive this year against 995 patients who tested positive in the whole of last year. Two patients have succumbed to the virus.

Public health experts say these are early days yet. The dengue ‘season’ usually picks up from September, and cases peak in October-November. Once the temperature dips, the virus dissipates. The spate of early intermittent showers observed this year may have ushered in the disease sooner than usual this year.

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The good news from hospitals is that despite the high numbers, the symptoms of dengue are relatively mild this year. The dengue virus has four strains with varying degree of symptoms. In 2012 and 2013, Delhi saw relatively stronger strains surface for the first time since 1996. More patients showed severe symptoms like platelets drops leading to shock syndrome and hemorrhagic fever.

This year tests to identify the strains have not started yet, but doctors say patients are reporting with fevers, malaise, and body ache only. Most do not require admission. To date, dengue has no approved vaccine though trials are underway and there is no `cure’ — treatment can only be symptomatic.

Microbiologists who study dengue virus patterns say that this spike has not caught anyone off guard. After 2010, when over 6,000 cases and eight deaths were reported, the virus has been contained — at least in terms of numbers. Most viruses report a spike every 2-3 years. This is known as the `cycle’ of the virus. After 2010, we saw around 1,000-2,000 cases in 2011 and 2012, respectively. In 2013, cases rose to over 5,000. Last year, saw less than 1,000 cases, so the pattern indicated an expected increase this year or the next.