New Delhi has seen many elections but the assembly election of Bihar is the one that has confused, excited, polarised people. Why does the Bihar election seem so difficult to decipher? Largely because Bihar is difficult to decipher through numbers and the Bihari voter is inscrutable. Most of them will observe you, think and then keep silent when asked questions about whom they will vote for. The state does not have a single private university, but it has more than 25% of voters below the age of 30. It’s mobile penetration is at par, almost, with India at 52%. Many Biharis charge their mobile with solar energy. Every fifth young voters is outside Bihar. Bihari students shell out Rs 5,000 crore every year to different educational institutions outside Bihar. People here are well-informed and small television channels are robust and outspoken in airing people’s voices. The state is modern if you see the information quotient of the average person, but then less than 25% of people have access to latrines and in Bihar less than 5% (yes, five!) people have access to tap water but again, Bihar is different. More than 99% of villages have handpumps. Biharis are reactionary too. There was a news report that in a Motihari theatre the occupancy of film shows reduced at night drastically as the idea of a possible return of the jungle raj associated with Lalu Prasad Yadav spread. In Bihar only 2.4% villages have ATM machines and less than 10% villages have banks. R.K.Thukral, head of Datanet India told The Indian Express, “In Jan Dhan Yojna some 1.42 crore new accounts opened and people deposited Rs 1,949 crores in it. However 40% accounts does not have any deposits.” Thukral’s team has for the first time cracked the booth level data and voting pattern of Bihar and he says, “Bihar is less communal and more caste-oriented.” Bihar has the highest population growth rate in the last decade and the highest density of population at 1106 per square km. Again, the literacy rate grew fastest from 47% to 61.80% in the last the decade. India’s literacy rate is around 72.99%. Bihar’s GDP growth rate is better than India's at 9 to 10% and in terms of exports it’s compounded growth rate between 2009-2014 was at 78.1%, which is the highest among all states. If you see certain figures one feels Nitish Kumar should win hands down. It has better roads, better power and better railway connectivity. But, then the miseries are many. Almost 60% of Bihar is under the direct threat of floods and 70% of the population gets affected by it. Thukral says, “Bihar has the highest number of the lowest land holding. Some 91% of land holding is less than 1 hectare. In agriculture dependent state incomes get divided and puts pressure on families.” He says, “Nitish Kumar gets credit that Bihar’s crime rate is much less than Kerala's.” Only 14% of Biharis have access to television, which is much less than Indian average but in bicycles Bihar is higher at 48% than the Indian average of 44%. Unfortunately, Nitish’s Bihar has not been able to create jobs. The negative rate of job creation has made the election exciting because population is restless. Except lichi cultivation, exports to Nepal and some growth in horticulture Bihar is starving of funds and opportunities. That’s why the BJP played the Modi card and went berserk in election time propaganda. In Bihar, it is a matter of 243 seats, 6.68 crore voters, and around 60000 polling booths. To reach out with specific message, photo, audio and video of Modi, BJP had set in motion exercise which is so massive that it will never be matched in near future by any other party. BJP has in its computer 70 lakh mobile numbers of Bihari voters. Some 1800 hoardings (Nitish Kumar too has equal number of hoardings though) with PM Modi specially pausing with folded hands. The unprecedented exercise to win Bihar was based on “Booth chalo abhiyaan” which included many levels of political programmes. 1) Pamphlets for every booths 2) Sampark karyakarta . It was massive exercise taken up to find out 11 people in every village who are “ BJP supporters”. 3) Videos of Modi-Shah and their development plank was spread all over Bihar. 4) Speeches of leaders. On net, on FB and on twitter and in print, on television were injected. Modi and Shah’s speeches reaches fastest on net. 5) Caste connection. Amit Shah gives as much importance to caste as Lalu Yadav or any Reddy or Lingayat leaders gives. Behind every little action there was another team which was auditing work done. The appointment of call centres helped BJP to check if at every booth first time voters are contacted by their teams or not, if 245 Parivartan raths are all-time –connected with their GPS system or not. BJP’s office has stock of videos of more than 12,500 meetings that had taken place in first round. In villages the posters are not allowed to be pasted by the EC so graffiti experts team was sent to send the message. In short BJP has moved so fast in setting up the election time machinery, with money and management, which ended up creating an unequal field for all other parties of India. How will any other party in one state assembly election have even such massive manpower? Bihar was overflowing with Modi and his messages. 27,300 three-wheelers, 2100 buses, 64000 graffiti 4000 tea stall, 18000 car stickers and some 300 plus rallies out of which Modi and Shah ended up addressing more than one sixth of it. Bihari leaders like Sushil Modi, Ravishankar Prasad, Radha Mohan, Rajeev Pratap Rudi or Nandkumar Yadav were sporadic in their visibility over Bihar issues in national television. It was only Modi or Shah who set the agenda for Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav to react. In just one election Bihar has witnessed more than 600 large and medium public rallies of Lalu, Nitish and Shah and PM Modi. This is massive. Nitish too had a war-room headed by Prashant Kishor and even Lalu’s son Tejashwi had managed to set up a control room. The two titans of Bihar have shook hands. That has confused everybody in Bihar and outside Bihar. Most importantly, behind BJP’s so-called negative prospect is that in Bihar, what Dr. Shaibal Gupta calls the social justice constituency is alive and is a force to reckon with. Once Mohan Bhagwat’s statement on revision of reservation system came, the hold over the campaign shifted out of BJP’s hands. After the Bhagwat moment Shah was left to struggle with his " booth chalo" mission, only.
