The Stomachs of Strongmen

Over the last decade,the two leaders have celebrated quite a few birthdays together. For his 75th in 2001,Castro trooped to Caracas for a bash with Chávez. The visit,Chávez said,gives us an opportunity to let him know how much we love him. Its unclear how many birthdays are left for either leader. Both are now facing their greatest challenges yet,not from opposition movements or dissidents,but from their own failing bodies. Castro nearly died in 2006 during a botched colon surgery. He passed his 80th birthday in a hospital bed. Sitting beside him was Hugo Chávez,who has been there at every stage of Castros five-year convalescence.

Now the 57-year-old Venezuelan is fighting for his own life,after a baseball-size tumor was removed from his abdomen in Havanas top hospital in June. It was Fidel Castro,not an oncologist,surgeon or family member,who delivered the bad news to Chávez post-surgery. After surgery and radiation,he is probably undergoing at least six months of chemotherapy,again in Havana.

Castro spent much of his birthday giving his friend a pep talk. He said to me: Chávez,You yourself can begin to convince yourself that everythings over…No,no,its not over., recalled Chavez.

Ironically,the hemispheres most indomitable strongmen and determined foes of the US and free market economics have both been felled,at least for now,by abdominal woes. The symbiosis between Cubas emeritus or former (and still de facto) commander-in-chief and the Venezuelan colonel-turned-oil-sultan is the most powerful and fascinating political alliance in the Americas. Five years before becoming president in 1999,Chávez was released from prison and flew to Havana. Waiting to welcome him at the airport was Castro himself. Its been a lovefest ever since.

More crucially,after Cuba lost its Russian patron and plummeted into economic free fall,Chávez gave his friend one of the most magnanimous gifts in historyaround 100,000 barrels of oil every day,gratis,with no strings attachedfor as long as Cuba wanted it. In exchange,Castro sent thousands of doctors to Caracasa deal derided by some critics as oil for ointment. No one doubts who got the better deal and Castro now receives adoration from a leader who happily calls him mi padre.

Not without reason. In 2002,when a coup appeared to have dislodged Chávez from power,it was Castro who spent night after night on the phone,tutoring his charge in a strategy to regain power. Dont resign! Dont resign! I kept telling him, Castro recounted in his autobiography.

Since then,Ramiro Valdés,Cubas pre-eminent policeman and spymaster,has made Caracas a second home,reorganising Venezuelas military,police force and Internet services (a fiber-optic cable connects the two countries like an umbilical cord). Cuban advisers are dotted throughout Venezuelas ministries.

Deep down, says the Venezuelan convalescent in chief,we are one government. They dont call it Venecuba for nothing.

Hence,if the health of either man further fails,all bets are off. And if Chávez succumbs to illness or is (somehow) voted out,Cubas oil spigot could well be turned off by his successor. Change is happening in Cubain ways big and small and previously unthinkable.

Tolerance for entrepreneurship is increasing. Cubans will soon be able to sell their homes,for the first time since the Castros took power. And the Obama administration has lifted many of the pointless and onerous restrictions on travel to Cuba.

While he appeared frail and off balance during his one brief live appearance at the Communist Party powwow in April,I would argue against any bet on Castros date with his maker. He has survived three major surgeries and the loss of a good deal of abdominal viscera,not to mention the administrations of 10 US presidents.

That said,in case Chávez slips his mortal coil before his Cuban ally does,the über-strategist Fidel Castro has no doubt cobbled together some sort of contingency planas he was forced to do after the Soviets pulled out.

Fidel is a force of nature, said his friend,the writer Gabriel García Márquez. With him,you never know. Or,as they lament in Miami,Immortal until proved otherwise.