In Assembly polls, BJP’s success mantra lies in retaining 2014 base

The party did well in central UP and Bundelkhand.

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Translating the 325 assembly seats that it won into Lok Sabha segments, the party has won in 337 segments, while losing out on 41. (Source: Tashi Tobgyal)

An analysis of assembly segment-wise results of the Lok Sabha polls of 2014 and the recently concluded Assembly polls shows that though the BJP has lost some ground in west and east UP in the last over two-and-a-half-years, it has improved its position in central UP and Bundelkhand, two regions with significant Dalit population.

Translating the 325 assembly seats that it won into Lok Sabha segments, the party has won in 337 segments, while losing out on 41. In 2014, the BJP-led NDA had won 43.3 per cent of the votes, while in this year’s assembly polls it raked in 41.4 per cent under the segments.

In the central region of the state, with 29 seats, the BJP won 16, including eight seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes, an apparent indication of weakening grip of BSP on Dalit votes, especially non-Jatav sub-castes.

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In Bundelkhand, the BJP had failed to win only in Mauranipur assembly segment, part of Jhansi Lok Sabha seat, in 2014, but has won it by a margin of over 16,000 votes in 2017.

In west UP, the party lost 10 segments and could gain only seven seats. It lost 23 segments in east UP but could gain only five.

Similarly, Congress had won 15 assembly segments in 2014 but could win only seven seats in 2017, an apparent result of its poor performance of the party in Rae Bareli and Amethi, the Lok Sabha seats of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi.

In 2014, the Congress had won in all five assembly segments of Rae Bareli and all five segments of Amethi.

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While the SP had won 42 segments in 2014, it has been able to win 47 seats this time. The BSP which had won in only nine segments in 2014, has been able to get 19 seats. The Rashtriya Lok Dal of Ajit Singh, which had not won in any assembly segment in 2014, has been able to win Chhaprauli seat of Baghpat this time.

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