Kerala Assembly election result highlights: Latest trends available from the Election Commission show that the CPM-led LDF will buck the trend of incumbent governments not getting re-elected in the last four decades in the state. Under the leadership of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the LDF is expected to finish between 95 and 100 seats, eclipsing its 2016 tally of 91 seats.
The Congress-led UDF, which had seen a glimpse of the mood of the voters during the local body elections last year, will once again have to play the role of the opposition in the next five years. It is expected to get somewhere between 40 and 45 seats.
The BJP, which had opened its account in the state last time with one seat and had expected to win at least half a dozen seats, is staring at a drought. Senior leaders like Kummanam Rajasekharan, K Surendran, Sobha Surendran and E Sreedharan were all trailing in their respective seats at 4: 45 pm.
Exit polls of local and national television networks had predicted unanimously last week that the LDF will be re-elected with varying degrees of margins.
Kerala Exit Polls
The victory of the LDF marks the first time since the 1980s that an incumbent political combination has returned to power in Kerala. In doing so, the LDF has surpassed its earlier tally of 91 in the 140-member Assembly. How was electoral history rewritten in Kerala, and what are the key takeaways from Sunday’s results?
Vijayan’s leadership
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s strong and decisive leadership during the crises — floods and pandemic — that battered the state during the past few years contrasted sharply with the Congress-led UDF regime. Minorities, especially Muslims, saw Vijayan and the LDF as a bulwark against the emergence of the BJP in the state. The Chief Minister’s leadership, appreciated especially by women and the youth, was able to counter the disenchantment among sections of Hindus over his Sabarimala moves, which had contributed to the LDF’s rout in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. (Read Liz Mathew's explainer here)
Kerala Health Minister K K Shailaja wins by a record margin of 60,963 votes from Mattannur.
Former Union minister and BJP leader K J Alphons loses from Kanjirappally.
Kerala Devaswom minister Kadakampally Surendran wins from Kazhakootam by a margin of 23,497 votes.
Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala wins by margin of 13,666 votes from Haripad.
Film actor Dulquer Salmaan congratulated Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan on winning the State Assembly elections. "The past few weeks have been bleak to say the least. Everyday the news has been difficult to come to terms with. Amidst all of that today brought joy. Hearty congratulations to Hon. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his team for their historic win. You have shown exemplary leadership during some of the toughest times Kerala has faced and we look forward to a brighter future ahead," Salmaan posted on Facebook.
'Metroman' E Sreedharan of the BJP lost to Congress' Shafi Parambil by a margin of 3,859 votes in Palakkad.
Delhi Chief Minister and AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal congratulated Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan for the impressive performance of the ruling LDF alliance in the Kerala Assembly election results.
Claiming victory of the ruling LDF alliance in the Kerala elections, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan today said, "Our victory today is the victory of the people. We believe in the people and they have trust in us. That's why we have won more seats than 2016. We can go into the details of the election at a later time."
"The people of Kerala have once again reposed faith in the Left front. But this is not a time to celebrate due to the large spread of Covid-19. We have to continue the fight against Covid-19," Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on LDF's strong performance in the state elections.
With the CPI(M)-led LDF set to return to power in Kerala, the party's general secretary Sitaram Yechury in a video message on Sunday thanked the state's electorate for showing confidence in the party and vowed that the Left party will continue to fight the challenges faced by people.
With the initial trends from the state showing the ruling LDF maintaining its lead in 88 of the 140 assembly constituencies in Kerala while the opposition Congress-headed UDF was ahead in 50 segments, as per trends available till 10.30 am, Yechury seemed confident that his party will emerge triumphant.
"I thank the people of Kerala for reposing faith in an unprecedented manner in the way that the previous LDF government tackled all the challenges that the people have faced and also the pandemic scourge. The government gave a Kerala model to the world on how to handle the pandemic," he said.
"The CPI(M)-led LDF will play its due role in this and we expect that the people of Kerala who have always stood up as one will continue to do so in a more stronger manner," he said. (PTI)
RMP leader KK Rema leads from Vadakara with 65,093 votes.
Trends at 4:10 pm
LDF - 99
UDF - 41
NDA - 0
Oommen Chandy tells reporters, "We will discuss with our colleagues and examine what happened. I have come to know that my majority is over 8000 votes. I don't know the panchayat-level trends. Congress has lost in the past, but has also returned to top form afterwards. "
Tight contests are taking place between LDF and UDF candidates in Thavanur and Thripunithura.
In Thavanur, outgoing LDF minister KT Jaleel is up against Firoz K of UDF. In Thripunithura, senior Congress leader K Babu is fighting against M Swaraj of CPM.
Leads are constantly swinging in three key constituencies where the BJP is a player: Palakkad, Nemom and Thrissur. In Nemom and Palakkad, the BJP candidates are currently in second position, trailing by a very small margin. In Thrissur however, the fight for the top is between CPI and Congress candidates.
After a nail-biting contest in Thrithala in Palakkad district, VT Balram of the Congress conceded defeat in a Facebook post. He has been defeated by CPM's MB Rajesh. He wished success for the new government of the LDF.
Jose K Mani, who became the chairman of Kerala Congress (M) and subsequently tethered his party to the LDF after the death of his father KM Mani, is facing a humiliating defeat in Pala. In a seat represented by his father for over 50 years, Jose is trailing by over 9000 votes, a margin unlikely to be overcome.
It's important to remember that Jose had resigned from his Rajya Sabha seat to enter the LDF and contest Assembly elections. In the event of the LDF winning, he was expected to even become a minister. But now, those hopes have dashed. His party though is leading in five seats. It had contested 13.
If there's one seat which is heading for a nail-biting photo-finish, it's the urban seat of Thrissur. A triangular contest is underway between Suresh Gopi of BJP, Padmaja Venugopal of Congress and P Balachandran of CPI. As per current trends, Balachandran is ahead with Padmaja trailing him and Suresh Gopi in last place. This was one of the seats where the BJP had a lot of hopes of winning.
For the past four decades in Kerala, no coalition has been re-elected to power. The trend of see-sawing power between the LDF and the UDF is set to come to an end this time.
As per trends available right now, the LDF is expected to finish between 85 and 95 seats, a repeat of 2016 and validating the leadership of the incumbent chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan. The UDF is expected to get 40-50 seats and the BJP may end up with 1-3 seats.
Every exit poll had predicted this outcome, although the margins varied. The LDF's domination has been particularly crystal-clear in districts like Kannur, Kozhikode, Thrissur, Palakkad and Thiruvananthapuram, covering all regions of the state. The CPM and its allies have done particularly well in its strongholds along with creating upsets in UDF strongholds. Ernakulam and Malappuram may prove to be the only two districts showing support for the UDF. The BJP is currently leading in three seats - Nemom, Palakkad and Thrissur although the margins are extremely narrow.
KK Rema, the widow of TP Chandrasekharan who was hacked to death by CPM activists, is enjoying a healthy lead in Vadakara. She's contesting as part of the Congress-led UDF. If she wins, it will be a deeply upsetting victory for the CPM which considers Vadakara it's backyard.
Senior DYFI leader and the son-in-law of chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, PA Muhammad Riyas has a lead of over 15,000 votes in Beypore, considered to be a CPM stronghold.
Congress candidate in Udumbanchola, EM Agasthy told Asianet News that he will shave his head as part of a bet on account of his looming election defeat. His rival, outgoing power minister and senior CPM leader MM Mani, is set for a landslide victory.
To defeat VT Balram, one of the popular young faces of the Congress in Thrithala, the CPM had nominated former Palakkad MP MB Rajesh, making the contest a mouth-watering one. Remember, this is a largely rural constituency with a substantial farming voter base. Though the CPM has done well among agricultural labourers and farmers, Balram, in the last two elections, had persevered due to his personal connections. This time too, he's seen to be slightly ahead of Rajesh as counting goes on.
KK Shailaja (Mattannur) - Leading
TP Ramakrishnan (Perambra) - Leading
MM Mani (Udumbanchola) - Leading
AC Moideen (Kunnamkulam) - Leading
E Chandrasekharan (Kanhangad) - Leading
J Mercykutty Amma (Kundara) - Trailing
Kadakampally Surendran (Kazhakkoottam) - Leading
KT Jaleel (Thavanur) - Trailing
AK Saseendran (Elathur) - Leading
K Krishnankutty (Chittur) - Leading
Kadannappally Ramachandran (Kannur) - Leading
The local television networks in Kerala are projecting slightly varied numbers for each front based on their findings from the counting centre, but the overall trend seems to be getting clear. And that's advantage LDF.
Manorama News has LDF leading in 91 seats and UDF in 47 seats -- which is exactly what happened in 2016.
If this trend continues in the next two hours, then the CPM-headed front is on its way for a historic victory.
One of the most keenly-watched seats, Nemom currently is witnessing a battle chiefly between the BJP and CPM. BJP candidate and former state president Kummanam Rajasekharan is leading by just around 900 votes. Congress, which brought in veteran leader K Muralidharan to snatch the seat from BJP, is trailing in third place.
These are still early leads, so anything can happen in the next two hours.
A lot is at stake for BJP state president K Surendran. He has the responsibility of ensuring a decent performance for the party as well as his own performance in two seats in the state. He's fighting from Konni and Manjeshwar, but in both places right now, he's trailing. In Konni, he is in third place whereas in Manjeshwar, he's in second place. Remember, Manjeshwar was a seat that he had almost won in 2016. He was defeated by UDF by just 89 votes.
Out of the leads available for 47 seats on the EC website:
LDF - 32
UDF - 15
NDA - 0
Chadayamangalam - LDF candidate J Chinjurani ahead by 605 votes
Chelakkara - LDF's K Radhakrishnan leads by over 3000 votes
Devikulam - LDF's A Raja leads by 143 votes
Kongad - LDF's K Santhakumari leads by 1500 votes
Konni - UDF's Robin Peter leads by over 400 votes
Kunnamkulam - LDF's AC Moideen leads by 1157 votes
Kuthuparamba - LDF's KP Mohanan leads by over 4000 votes
Malampuzha - LDF's A Prabhakaran leads by 1565 votes
Mananthavady - UDF's PK Jayalakshmi leads by 311 votes
Ollur - LDF's K Rajan leads by 2857 votes
Local television networks show that LDF has a clear edge in the first hour of counting of votes, which is mostly postal ballots. It's important to stress that the leads in many of the constituencies are as low as 10 and 15 votes, and so , it could tilt either way. Nevertheless, LDF leading in over 70 seats, UDF not too far behind with leads in 60 seats and NDA in just one seat.
CM Pinarayi Vijayan is leading in Dharmadam, his party's stronghold in Kannur district. BJP candidate is leading in Nemom, the only seat it holds in the outgoing Assembly.
Manjeshwar - A constituency at the northern tip of Kerala bordering Karnataka, Manjeshwar has always been an interesting seat to watch particularly because of its three-cornered contests. The BJP, Muslim League and the CPM have major stakes here. This time, BJP state president K Surendran, who lost by just 89 votes in 2016, is fighting once again, along with Konni in Pathanamthitta district in south Kerala. It's a rarity for a politician to fight two seats. The seat currently rests with the Muslim League.
Nemom - The cynosure of all eyes particularly because it is the only seat BJP won last time. It's often described by the party as it's 'Gujarat' in Kerala, indicating that it's a stronghold. The BJP candidate here, Kummanam Rajasekharan, a former state president and former Mizoram governor, faces an uphill battle from Congress strongman K Muralidharan and CPM's V Sivankutty.
Kazhakoottam - A seat in Thiruvananthapuram district where the sentiments over the women's entry at Sabarimala has been at its zenith. Outgoing temple affairs minister Kadakampally Surendran of the CPM is facing his most difficult election against BJP's Sobha Surendran and Congress' SS Lal. Sobha, a key BJP leader in the state, was very active in the Sabarimala protests.
Pala - A largely-rural constituency in Kottayam district in central Kerala, Pala is the bastion of the Kerala Congress (M), a regional party which was earlier a part of the UDF and now in the LDF. KC(M) chairman Jose K Mani, whose father represented the seat for over 50 years, has his prestige at stake. Nothing but a victory will satisfy him. He faces Mani C Kappan of the UDF.
Vadakara - A woman fighting to avenge her husband's brutal murder, that's the storyline in Vadakara in Kozhikode district. KK Rema of the UDF is fighting against Manayath Chandran of the LDF. Rema's husband TP Chandrasekharan was brutally murdered by CPM workers in 2012 for rebelling against the party.
It's not wise to go by the trends of the postal ballots to predict the outcome of an election in Kerala, or anywhere else. It's generally believed that the CPM has an upper-hand in postal ballots in the state. So even if the party leads in postal ballots, it could be the other way round when it comes to EVM votes.
The counting of postal ballots has begun across 114 counting centres in the state. The initial leads from those ballots will come in, within a matter of minutes. And the first round of counting in each constituency is expected to conclude by 9:15 am.
If you're new to the political scene of Kerala, here's laying out the basics for you.
It's a 140-seat Assembly and the magic number for a simple majority is 71. The leading contenders for power are the incumbent CPM-led LDF, the principal opposition Congress-led UDF and the BJP-led NDA fighting hard to emerge as a strong third alternative.
Power in Kerala has always shifted between the LDF and the UDF, especially in the last 40 years, where no coalition has been re-elected to power. So that makes this election quite special. If the LDF comes back to power, which all exit polls say it will, it will be effectively breaking a four-decade-old jinx. The BJP, though ruling at the Centre and in a majority of the states in the country, only opened its account in the Assembly in 2016 winning one seat. So, though it's not expected by political pundits to come to power, the number of votes it gets in each constituency can determine who wins there.
In the 2016 Assembly elections, the LDF won 91 seats and the UDF 47 seats. The BJP won 1 seat and Independent leader PC George one seat.
Welcome to the live blog where we will be discussing and dissecting the results of the Kerala Assembly elections as they pour in starting 8 am. Since we're truly in the middle of a raging pandemic, counting of votes is expected to be a bit different. It may take longer for the leads to come and a picture to emerge as Covid-protocols have to be followed at the counting centres. Nevertheless, by 12 noon, we are expected to get the big picture of who's coming to power in the state.