Lok Sabha elections: In its stronghold, BJP treads tried & tested path but anti-incumbency poses challenge

Out of the 36 Assembly seats, the BJP won 13, Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) six, Congress six, NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) seven, AIMIM two and Independents two.

This time, the elections for the six Lok Sabha seats will take place in the last two phases, on May 13 and May 20. Polling for three constituencies, Jalgaon, Nandurbar and Raver, will take place on May 13, while Dhule, Dindori and Nashik will go to polls on May 20.

Polling for three constituencies, Jalgaon, Nandurbar and Raver, will take place on May 13, while Dhule, Dindori and Nashik will go to polls on May 20.

With BJP dominance in North Maharashtra, there is little scope for the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde or the NCP led by Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar to jostle for seat share. Out of the six seats, the BJP is contesting five — Jalgaon, Nandurbar, Raver, Dhule and Dindori. The lone Nashik seat saw an intense power tussle between the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. The MNS, which too has come onboard, is also vying for the Nashik seat. A formal decision has been put on hold for Nashik, currently represented by sitting MP Hemant Godse from the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction).

NCP leader and minister Chhaggan Bhujbal wanted Nashik seat for his nephew Sameer Bhujbal. He believes the party has equal right over the seat with sizeable presence in the region. With the BJP unwilling to give up its five sitting constituencies, there are severe limitations to accommodating all alliance partners’ wishes in North Maharashtra.

Interestingly, out of the five seats where the BJP is contesting, there is a change of candidate in only one seat, that is Jalgaon, where sitting MP Unmesh Patil has been replaced by Smita Wagh.

In the last elections, the party had to face a lot of challenges following an intense power tussle within the BJP for Jalgaon. A section within the party had then pitched for Smita Wagh but another faction favoured Unmesh Patil. The observers’ intervention was necessitated to resolve the infighting. A decision on candidate was fraught with many challenges this time too. Dropping Unmesh Patil was necessary to beat anti-incumbency in Jalgaon. Besides, the party had to get everybody onboard to work as a team. The candidate change was seen as a move to please all.

“North Maharashtra has always been the stronghold of the BJP. We are confident of winning all six seats,” said state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule. However, anti-incumbency against two-term MPs in Nandurbar, Raver and Dhule cannot be completely ruled out. Especially, the BJP will have to get the Shiv Sena (Shinde) faction to ensure hurdle-free polls in the region. Local leaders and workers have complained against Heena Gavit and Raksha Khadse.

“Raksha Khadse has held meetings with all local leaders and allies,” according to a BJP insider.

Party leaders, including Cabinet minister Girish Mahajan, are active in the field ironing out creases to ensure smooth coordination within the party and with alliance partners.
“North Maharashtra is the safest turf. As a result, there are more aspirants. In any election hopefuls seeking tickets always outnumber the seats. Ultimately, everybody will have to work as a team,” the source said.

The BJP’s confidence stems from a weak Opposition. The BJP’s competition in North Maharashtra was with the NCP in the past. The split in the NCP leading to two factions — one led by Sharad Pawar and the other by Ajit Pawar — has helped the BJP to undermine its opponents. Similarly, the Shiv Sena is also split in two — Shinde Sena and Sena (UBT). The major concern for the BJP is to see to what extent the Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) are able to make inroads in North Maharashtra.

In tribal Nandurbar, which was once a Congress bastion, BJP’s two-term sitting MP Heena Gavit is pitted against Congress’ Gowaal Padavi. In the past, it was a tradition for Indira Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi to start the party’s campaign from Nandurbar in Maharashtra. The tribal belt had a distinct identity with the Congress, which was dented by the BJP in last one decade.

In 2014, the BJP took everybody by surprise when it fielded a medical practitioner, Heena Gavit, as its candidate from Nandurbar.

In 2014, the BJP took everybody by surprise when it fielded a medical practitioner, Heena Gavit, as its candidate from Nandurbar. The daughter of senior leader and minister Vijay Gavit made her political entry directly contesting the Lok Sabha polls. She won the seat defeating nine-term Congress MP and former Union Minister of State for Home Manikrao Gavit. In the subsequent elections in 2019, Heena Gavit defeated Congress leader and former minister K C Padavi. This time, Heena Gavit will be contesting against Gowaal Padavi, the 32-year-old lawyer-son of K C Padavi.

In a strategic move to strengthen its electoral base, the BJP has got to its side Congress leader Padmakar Valvi while Shiv Sena (UBT) MLC Amshya Padvi joined the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction). These developments last week have come as a setback for the Congress, which is trying to recapture its lost turf.

Despite the defections within the Congress, state party president Nana Patole said, “During Bharat Jodo Yatra we received very good response in the tribal belt. Anti-incumbency against the BJP MPs, who have taken people for granted in their respective constituencies in North Maharashtra, will work to our advantage.”

By fielding Subhash Bhamre from Dhule, also a doctor-turned-politician, the BJP has clearly silenced critics within the party who were hoping to see a fresh face. He was made MoS (defence) in the first term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi government.

In Dindori Lok Sabha seat, another tribal belt in Nashik district, sitting MP and Union Minister of State for Health Bharati Pawar was considered as the official candidate. Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Bharati Pawar quit parent party NCP (then undivided) to join the BJP. She switched party as the NCP denied her Lok Sabha ticket. Bharati contested and lost in 2014 to BJP MP Harishchandra Chavan.

Keeping the continuity factor in mind, the party fielded for the third term its sitting MP Raksha Khadse. She is the daughter-in-law of senior NCP (SP) leader Eknath Khadse, who left the BJP in 2021.

The NCP (SP) was keen on putting Khadse senior as its candidate against the BJP. However, citing poor health Khadse has conveyed to Sharad Pawar his inability to contest. He has also made it clear nobody from his family will contest from Raver. Khadse’s daughter Rohini is NCP (SP)’s women wing chief of Maharashtra.

In 2021, when Khadse joined Sharad Pawar’s NCP it was seen as a ploy to weaken the BJP in North Maharashtra. However, the BJP has systematically worked in this region which has thrown up many challenges, especially the unrest by onion farmers.

In September 2023, the Centre imposed a 40 per cent duty on onion exports leading to massive unrest among traders and farmers. Onion auction was withheld for several weeks and months with APMC closing down its operations. The crisis was further compounded with recurring unseasonal rain and hailstorm adversely impacting farmers growing grapes, bananas and onions.

To tackle the protest among farmers the state government provided subsidy of Rs 300 crore to 3 lakh onion growers in Maharashtra. Exactly a year ago, in mid-March 2023, 10,000 farmers marched from Nashik to Mumbai to demand the long-pending implementation of the Forest Rights Act (FRA) 2006. The long march saw farmers and adivasis from remote tribal belts walk from Nashik to Mumbai for their rights. A 17-point charter was presented to the state government led by Shinde. From loan waiver, electricity bill waiver, power supply, FRA implementation, higher renumeration for soyabean, cotton and onions to implementation of old pension scheme — the list was long. After a series of meetings and assurances to consider all the demands, the farmers’ march, which was organised by the All India Kisan Samiti, ended.