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Journalism of Courage
Bellwether seats — the three Surat Seats
To begin with, look for the trends of these three seats in Surat district — Olpad, Surat East, Surat West. Whichever party had won these three seats of Surat, went to form the government in the state. Since 1995, when the BJP came to power, these three seats have been voting for the saffron party. Before that, the Congress won from here, whenever it came to power.
Two more seats — Ankleshwar in Bharuch district and Navsari — have also followed the same trend. So, the trends of these five seats could give an early preview of the final result.
The Hardik Effect — Mehsana, Varachha Key
Staying with Surat district, one should shift attention to Varachha — the Assembly segment with the highest Patidar population percentage. Here, approximately every 3 out of 5 persons belong to the Patidar community. Hardik had conducted a roadshow here, but Chief Minister Vijay Rupani had skipped the area. In the 2012 Assembly elections, the BJP had won from here by over 20,000 votes.
Neighbouring Kamrej seat in Surat, where BJP had won by a whopping 60,000 votes, and where half of the population is Patidar, could also be a barometer of Hardik effect. The results here will help in gauging the extent of damage, if any, Hardik was able to inflict on the BJP.
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Simultaneously, look at the trends coming in from Mehsana district in north, where Patidars hold the key. While Unjha, where 40 per cent of population is from the Patidar community and anger against the BJP was most visible, the real test for both Hardik and BJP will be neighbouring Mehsana seat from where Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel is seeking re-election. Five years ago, he had won by a margin of nearly 35,000 votes. The results and the margin here will help in assessing Hardik’s impact and understanding the choice of Patidar voters.
Also keep a close watch on a few more Patidar-dominated seats such as Amreli, Dhoraji in Rajkot from where PAAS member Lalit Vasoya is contesting on a Congress ticket, Tankara in Morbi, Katargam in Surat, Viramgam in Ahmedabad (where Hardik voted) and Nikol in Ahmedabad.
The Alpesh Factor — Radhanpur & Sabarkantha
Nearly 100 km west of Mehsana is Radhanpur in Patan district from where OBC leader Alpesh Thakor is contesting on a Congress ticket. Thakor, who emerged in the political scene of Gujarat following Hardik’s quota stir, was considered as a counter to the Patidar leader. His movement against illicit liquor earned him a substantial number of followers among the OBCs. Did the 40-year-old leader fetch OBC votes to the Congress could be known with his fate at Radhanpur, which is currently being held by the BJP.
More importantly, with the Thakors dominating in 40-odd seats, spread across Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Aravalli, Gandhinagar, Anand and Kheda districts, the Congress’s tally in the districts will determine whether Alpesh’s induction into the party proved to be useful.
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In the 39 Assembly segments, where the Thakors constitute at least two-fifth of the population, the Congress had an upper hand in the last Assembly elections. The party had won 22 of them, while the BJP 16. The NCP, which fought the election in alliance with the Congress, had got one.
Jignesh Factor — Vadgam
Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani hit the headlines last year when Dalit men were flogged allegedly by gau rakshaks in Una. Since then he has rallied people of his community against the ruling BJP. In a state where Dalits constitute 7 per cent of the population, Mevani exuded confidence of “bringing down the BJP”. While Mevani is contesting as an Independent from Vadgam with the backing of the Congress and the AAP, it is to be seen whether he wins the Congress-held seat.
In the last Assembly elections, the BJP had won 13 of the 18 seats where the Dalits constitute over 15 per cent of the population. The Congress had won only 5. If the Congress manages to win significantly more than five seats, Jignesh could get the credit for it.
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The Grip: BJP in Ahmedabad, Congress in Banaskantha
As trends start to become clear, it’s time to see if the two parties — tbe BJP and the Congress — have been able to hold on to their respective bastions. If the contest is close, the strongholds of the two parties could play a decisive role. In case of a sweep, the losing party’s performance in its bastion will determine the extent of its loss.
There are over 30-odd seats which the BJP has never lost in the last 22 years. Seven of them — Daskroi, Maninagar, Ellisbridge, Naroda, Jamalpur-Khadia, Sabarmati and Asarwa — are in Ahmedabad alone. Except Jamalpur-Khadia, a Muslim-dominated seat, and Asarwa, a SC reserved seat, the margin of BJP’s win in the rest ranged above 55,000 votes in the 2012 Assembly polls.
The number of BJP votes here and its margin, if the party is able to consolidate its hold, will indicate the party’s strength or weakness. For the Congress, its stronghold in Banaskantha and Sabarkantha districts will play a crucial role in its overall tally. The losses here could be devastating for the party. The good showing of the Congress in Banaskantha last time — 5 out of 9 seats — will be keenly watched by everyone.
This time, flash flood which wreaked havoc in Banaskantha in July, could play a significant role in the party’s prospects. There are only four seats — Khedbrahma (Sabarkantha district), Mahuda (Kheda district), Borsad (Anand district) and Jasdan (Rajkot district) — which the Congress have never lost since 1995, when the BJP came to power in the state.
Moreover, the Congress would like to maintain or increase its seats in the tribal-dominated districts of Panchmahal, Dang and Valsad. At present, out of 30 seats where tribal population is more than 30 per cent, the Congress has 15, BJP 14 and Chhota Vasava in 1. The Congress would like to increase its share here, and so the BJP.
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Sanand battle cry — Will Nano have a mega impact?
Home to the Tata’s Nano car plant, Sanand emerged not only as the battlefield but also an issue. In most of his speeches, Congress president Rahul Gandhi referred to the Tata Motors factory to accuse Prime Minister Narendra Modi of “grabbing land” of farmers to “give it away to 4 to 5 big industrialists”. In the fag end of his campaign, Modi chose to hold a rally in Sanand to hit back at Rahul. Though the Congress had won from here in the last Assembly polls, the Sanand result will determine whether Rahul’s campaign pitch bore fruits for the party.
Anand battlefield — BJP to test Cong hold
The BJP ran a targeted campaign in Anand district which had overwhelmingly voted for the Congress — 5 of the 7 seats — five years ago. On December 9, PM Modi held a rally here; two days later, BJP chief Amit Shah Anklav and Borsad — both Congress seats. With the BJP going offensive against the Congress in the latter’s turf, the results in the seven seats of the district will determine whether the BJP’s gameplan would help in adding more seats to its tally.
Where Narmada matters — Saurashtra & Kutch
PM Modi had kickstarted the poll campaign with the inauguration of Sardar Sarovar dam when he had slammed the successive Congress governments at the Centre for allegedly “sabotaging” the project as well as Gujarat’s development. Rahul had countered the charge and used Narmada water issue to get back at him, alleging that Narmada water did not reach to the farmers and instead made it to factories of big industrialists. In the parched Saurashtra-Kutch region, the Narmada water could determine the results in 11 seats. Watch out for the trends of Gadhada in Botad district and Anjar in Kutch, both BJP seats, but are at tail ends and water flow remains irregular.
The Pak ‘hand’ — Palanpur to change colour or not
It was at Palanpur, a border town, where PM Modi saw “Pakistan hands” in the election as he linked the “neech (lowly)” remark of Mani Shankar Aiyar to a dinner hosted by the Congress leader at his house where dignitaries from Pakistan were present. The north Gujarat seat was held by the BJP in 2002 and 2007, but in the last election, the Congress wrested it from the BJP. Whether PM’s Pakistan remark will swing the result will be known by afternoon today.
The Urban-Rural Divide — GST in Cities, MSP in villages
As trends begin to convert into results, it’s time to check the influence of the parties in the urban and rural seats. The first telltale sign of the impact of demonetisation and GST on the polls could be felt in the urban areas of Surat, where textile traders had carried out protests and called strikes. With the BJP holding sway over the urban seats — 53/62 — the political impact of these two economic decisions of Modi government will be measured here.
Of the 120 rural seats, the Congress had won 52 last time — total seats it won was 61. The BJP had won 61 rural seats. The tally of the Congress, which is banking on farmers’ discontent over government procurement prices, will largely depend on how it fares in the rural constituencies.
