Exit polls predict Yogi-led BJP return in UP, give Punjab to AAP

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All polls predicted that the BSP, which had won 19 seats in 2017, could fare worse.

The India Today-Axis My India predicted that the BJP and allies would win 288-326 seats. Other pollsters, however, gave the ruling BJP a comfortable majority in the 220-250 range, indicating that the party despite feeling the heat over issues like unemployment and vagrant cattle could be riding a pro-incumbency wave.

In 2017, the BJP won a landslide mandate in UP, winning 312 seats on its own in the 403- member House. With allies Apna Dal (9) and SBSP (4), the tally of the BJP alliance had touched 325 seats in 2017. The SP, which fought in alliance with the Congress, could win only 47 seats last time.

In Punjab, most pollsters gave the AAP numbers much ahead of the ruling Congress and the Akali Dal-BSP combine. If the exit poll predictions hold true and the AAP manages to win Punjab, the outcome has the potential to trigger a churning in Indian politics, especially in the Opposition space as no other party barring the BJP and the Congress are in power in more than one state now.

While the India Today-Axis poll gave the AAP 76-90 seats, the News 24-Chanakya poll predicted it would get 100 seats. The ABP C Voter poll gave it between 51 to 61 seats. Almost all the polls gave the Congress less than 30 seats. The figures for the Akali Dal, however, varied. While India Today-Axis poll gave it 7-11 seats, News 24 Chanakya gave it a mere 6 seats. Most polls, however, gave it 15 to 25 seats. And most predicted that the BJP-Punjab Lok Congress would end up in single digits.

The AAP surge in Punjab, if the pollsters are correct, is a major setback for the Congress which had played the Dalit card appointing Charanjit Singh Channi as Chief Minister, replacing Amarinder Singh just six months ago and projecting him as the CM face. A defeat for the Congress could reignite the factional feud in the state.

In 2017, the Congress stormed to power in Punjab, winning 77 of the 117 seats. The AAP, which made its debut last time, came second with 20 seats while the Akali Dal-BJP alliance, which was in power then, could manage to win only 18 seats (Akali Dal 15 and BJP 3).

The BJP, on the other hand, aligned with former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Lok Congress.

In Uttarakhand, the opinion polls differed sharply. While some gave the ruling BJP an edge, others predicted the Congress would emerge as the single largest party. None of the polls gave either side more than 40 seats. No party has retained power in Uttarakhand since its formation in 2000. If the BJP manages to hold on to power, it will be a record of sorts. In 2017, riding the Modi wave, the BJP managed to win in 57 of the total 70 Assembly seats while the Congress was limited to 11 seats. Two of the remaining seats were won by independent candidates who are now with the ruling party.

In Goa too, pollsters predicted a dead-heat race with none of the polls predicting a comfortable victory for either the ruling BJP or the Congress. Most polls predicted that the AAP could win a couple of seats. Incidentally, one poll (ABP-C Voter) predicted that the Trinamool Congress would win 5-9 seats which, if turned out to be true, would place it in a king maker’s role. In the 40-member House, the Congress had emerged as the single largest party in 2017, winning 17 seats but the BJP, which won 13 seats, managed to form the government with the support of the Goa Forward Party and the MGP which had won three seats each and two independents.

In Manipur, all the polls predicted that the ruling BJP would either emerge as the single largest party or cross the halfway mark. In 2017, the Congress had emerged as the single largest party in the state. Though the Congress had won 28 seats in the 60-member house, the BJP with 21 seats got the support of four MLAs each from the Naga People’s Front and the National People’s Party and one from the Lok Janshakti Party and an independent to reach the magic figure of 31. Most polls predicted that the NPP and NPF could repeat or better their 2017 performance.