A big win,but only the first step

Lengthening that period,so that the United States and its allies would have time to react,is the ultimate goal of President Obama’s negotiating team. It is also a major source of friction between the White House and two allies,Israel and Saudi Arabia,which have made no secret of their belief that they are being sold down the river.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has described the terms of the accord announced early Sunday as a “bad deal” that does not require Iran “to take apart even one centrifuge.” The Saudis have been equally blistering,hinting in vague asides that if the United States cannot roll back the Iranian programme,it may be time for Saudi Arabia to move to Plan B – nuclear weapons of its own.

Iran’s agreement to convert or dilute the fuel stocks that are closest to weapons grade,US President Obama said,means that the deal would “cut off Iran’s most likely paths to a bomb.” But it would cut them off only temporarily,long enough to pursue negotiations without fear that Iran would use the time to inch closer to a weapons capability.

But the rollback he won for this first stage,according to American intelligence estimates,would slow Iran’s dash time by only a month to a few months.

Kerry and his chief negotiator say they have no illusions that the interim agreement solves the Iranian nuclear problem. It simply creates time and space for the real negotiations,they say,where the goal will be to convince Iranian leaders that the only way to get the most crippling sanction lifted is to dismantle large parts of a programme on which they have spent billions of dollars and staked national pride.

At the beginning of Obama’s presidency,Iran had roughly 2,000 kilograms of low-enriched uranium,barely enough for a bomb. It now has about 9,000 kilograms,by the estimates of the International Atomic Energy Agency. For Obama,the interim deal to freeze Iran’s programme is a major win,and a deal that rolled it back would be an even bigger win.

Five years in the making

January 2009: President Barack Obama,in his first inaugural address,suggests a willingness to open contacts with Iran.

March 2009: Obama calls for a “new beginning” in the countries’ relationship.

September 2011: Informal contacts between working-level American and Iranian officials begin in earnest at various locations.

June 2013: Hassan Rouhani wins Iranian election,promising relief from sanctions that are crippling the country’s economy and signaling a new willingness to engage on the nuclear issue.

August 2013: Rouhani and Obama exchange letters. A framework for an initial nuclear deal begins to emerge.

September 2013: Obama speaks to Rouhani by phone in the first conversation between a US and Iranian leader since 1979.

October 2013: Secret meeting held between US and Iranian officials. A new round of larger nuclear talks with world powers is held in Geneva.

November 23,2013: Western powers and Iran reach the initial deal on curbing Iran’s nuclear

programme.

Who gains,who loses

Winners

ASIAN OIL CUSTOMERS: Sanctions on Iran’s oil exports will remain in place during the six-month period covered by the deal,but world powers promise no new economic measures against Tehran as long as compliance moves ahead. This is good news for energy-hungry Asian economies such as India and China.

DUBAI: Sanctions have sharply cut into the traditional trade and livelihood of many in the large Iranian expatriate community in Dubai. Anything that brings back Iranian business is welcome in Dubai.

IRAN’S PRESIDENT: Rouhani often pitched the nuclear talks as a potential for a “win-win’’ outcome with the West. On one level,he got his take by securing a deal that allows Iran to maintain uranium enrichment — although at lower levels.

Losers

ISRAEL: Many Israeli officials,including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,see Iran’s ability to enrich uranium as a recipe for potential disaster. Netanyahu must now try to weigh the significant risks of turning his back on the West and considering possible unilateral military options.

SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Arabia now sees the deal as favouring its regional rival and diminishing the Gulf role in US policy-shaping. It’s unlikely,though,to stop the major Saudi military purchases from American defence contractors.

EGYPT: The nuclear deal and the possibility of expanding US-Iran dialogue could cut into Egypt’s traditional standing as the guiding force in shaping Western policy in the region.

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