Where Ukraine’s borders stand after 3 years of Russian invasion

Critics argue that with such statements, the US had weakened Ukraine’s bargaining position. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia controlled around 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory as of February 21, 2025. These include territories in the south and east, Crimea (which was captured in 2014) and some ground north of Kharkiv.

How have Ukraine’s borders changed over the years?

Ukraine declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. It shares its borders with Russia in the east, Belarus in the north, and Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova in the west. To its south, lies the Black Sea.

The map of Ukraine showing pre-2014 borders (Picture courtesy: US State Department)

The 2014 invasion

Russia has set eyes on dominating the Black Sea, essentially making Ukraine a land-locked country, and denting its trade logistics. Gaining control of the Black Sea not only plays into the expansionist mindset of the Kremlin but also gives Russia easier access to European markets. To that effect, Russia annexed Crimea, a southern peninsular region in the Black Sea, in February 2014.

Months later, pro-Russian separatist forces also took control of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. Since then, the region has witnessed continued fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces.

The map shows territories (black outlined) occupied by Russia or Russian-backed forces after the 2014 offensive and before the 2022 invasion. (Screenshot: Institute for Study of War)

The 2022 invasion

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine, advancing into key territories from the south and east. Despite several attempts, Russia failed to capture Kyiv, the capital city, and Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine.

In September 2022, Russia stated it had taken control of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, it does not control the entirety of these regions. It had also begun gaining ground in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine managed to reverse Russian advances in Kherson and Kharkiv swiftly. It also launched a counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk in June 2023.

In August 2024, Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. However, as of February 20, 2025, a top Russian military leader told Reuters that they had taken back at least 64 per cent of the total land taken by Ukraine.

As of March 3, 2025, Russia maintained control over southern and eastern Ukrainian territories. The ISW reported “significant fighting in the past 24 hours” near Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. There was also fighting to the north of Kharkiv, which ISW has termed as “subordinate main effort” on Russia’s part.

Map showing Russian-controlled territories in Ukraine, and counteroffensive by Ukraine as of March 3, 2025. (Picture courtesy: Institute for Study of War)

Ukraine, too, maintained its control over parts of the Kursk Oblast. On February 11, Zelenskyy told The Guardian that they would offer to “swap one territory for another” with Russia. However, he did not know which part of Russian-occupied land could Ukraine ask for in return for parts of Kursk. “All our territories are important, there is no priority,” Zelenskyy said.

On Monday, Zelenskyy said that a deal to end the war “is still very, very far away”. Trump called it the “worst statement that could have been made by Zelenskyy”. “This guy doesn’t want there to be Peace as long as he has America’s backing,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

“America will not put up with it for much longer,” he added. Shortly after, the White House announced that the US had halted all military aid to Ukraine to assess if “it is contributing to a solution”.

“The President has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well,” an official said. It remains to be seen how the move will impact Ukraine’s defence.