Israel and Hamas are close to a peace deal, but what does that really mean in 10 points

Here’s what you need to know:

1. 01

   What has been the death toll so far?

   Israeli strikes have intensified in Gaza City and surrounding areas, killing at least 70 Palestinians on October 4 alone, including 45 in Gaza City.

   This brings the weekly toll (September 29 – October 5) to over 300 deaths, amid ongoing famine and displacement. Gaza's Health Ministry reports 66,000+ total Palestinian deaths since October 2023, with women and children comprising nearly half.

   An additional 440 malnutrition-related deaths (including 147 children) have been documented since October 2023.

   Following the October 7 attacks, it is believed that around 150 Israelis have been killed in the conflict.

2. 02

   Who is behind the peace plan and what does it entail?

   On September 29, 2025, Trump unveiled an ambitious 20-point peace plan for Gaza’s future during a White House news conference, joined by  Netanyahu. Both leaders expressed hope that the plan could end the destructive conflict with Hamas. Developed with inputs from former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, the plan followed extensive discussions between Israel, Arab nations, and US officials in the week leading up to the announcement.

   Hamas was not involved in the drafting of the plan and claims it received the proposal only after its public release.

   The initial phase of Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan outlines clear steps for immediate de-escalation. Unlike previous proposals that sought a temporary truce before negotiating a permanent ceasefire, this plan mandates an immediate end to the war upon both parties signing the agreement.

   Within 72 hours of the accord, Hamas would release all remaining hostages from its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, including approximately 20 living captives and the remains of about 25 others. In return, Israel would free around 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences for militant activities and approximately 1,700 Gazans detained during the conflict. Israeli forces would withdraw to designated lines, maintaining a buffer zone within Gaza, while the international community would begin delivering urgently needed humanitarian aid to the region.

3. 03

   What would this mean for the future of Gaza?

   Under Trump’s plan, Hamas’s governance in Gaza would be replaced by a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” to manage post-war administration. This committee would operate under a supervisory “Board of Peace,” chaired by Trump, with Blair in a key leadership role. Hamas members who pledge to pursue “peaceful coexistence” and decommission their weapons would receive amnesty, as outlined by the White House. Those opting to leave Gaza would be granted safe passage into exile. The plan also calls for the United States and its Arab allies to establish an international force to deploy immediately in Gaza. This force would train a Palestinian police unit, intended to serve as the “long-term internal security solution” for the enclave.

4. 04

   What challenges remain?

   The plan leaves leaves several critical questions unresolved. Key uncertainties include:

   Governance: The identity of the members of the “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” tasked with governing Gaza remains unspecified, raising concerns about its composition and legitimacy.

   Militant Disarmament: The plan does not clarify how the new authorities will handle Hamas militants who refuse to disarm, a significant issue given Hamas’s conditional acceptance and resistance to full demilitarisation.

   International Force: The composition of the international force to be deployed in Gaza, led by the US and Arab allies, is undefined, with no specific countries confirmed for participation.

   Transitional Timeline: The duration of the transitional administration, overseen by the “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump with Tony Blair’s involvement, is not specified.

   Palestinian Authority Role: The plan allows a potential future role for the Palestinian Authority, Hamas’s rival, but this is contingent on extensive reforms, the scope and timeline of which remain unclear.

5. 05

   What has Israel said about the plan?

   Netanyahu has endorsed Trump’s peace plan. On October 4, he announced that he is dispatching Israeli negotiators, led by his close aide Ron Dermer, to Egypt to “finalize the technical deals to release our hostages.” Netanyahu stated that both Israel and the United States aim to conclude these talks “within days,” expressing hope to inform the Israeli public of the hostages’ return “in the coming days."

   However, Netanyahu has consistently maintained that he will not tolerate any agreement allowing Hamas to retain a presence in Gaza. He reiterated this stance on October 4 saying,  “this will happen either diplomatically, according to Trump’s plan, or militarily — at our hands,” adding, “This will be achieved the easy way or the hard way, but it will be achieved.”

6. 06

   What has Hamas said?

   Trump’s plan would dismantle Hamas’s nearly two-decade control over Gaza, marking a significant setback for the group. Hamas leaders have repeatedly rejected disarmament, viewing it as a non-negotiable red line. The plan stipulates that Israeli forces would maintain a presence in Gaza, particularly in a border buffer zone, for the foreseeable future. This conflicts with Hamas’s consistent demand for a complete Israeli withdrawal from the territory. Analysts note that Hamas fears releasing all hostages within 72 hours, as required by the plan, would strip them of leverage, potentially allowing Israel to resume attacks or renege on the agreement without concern for the captives’ safety.

   Hamas’s October 3 statement expressing willingness to release all Israeli hostages sparked cautious optimism that ongoing negotiations could yield lasting progress. However, the group provided no clear stance on several other key elements of the proposal, including full disarmament and the specifics of international oversight.

7. 07

   Have peace plans worked in the past?

   Previous attempts to stop the conflict in Gaza have consistently failed. Israel and Hamas have only managed temporary ceasefires: one lasting about a week in November 2023 and another for less than three months in early 2025. A core barrier to a lasting peace remains Hamas’s demand for a permanent ceasefire that allows it to maintain influence in post-war Gaza, while Israel firmly rejects any deal that permits Hamas to retain power in the territory.

8. 08

   What happens if Hamas rejects the plan?

   In a briefing at the White House on Friday afternoon, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the consequences of turning down the deal would be "very grave" for Hamas. "I think that the entire world should hear the president of the United States loud and clear," Leavitt added. "Hamas has an opportunity to accept this plan and move forward in a peaceful and prosperous manner in the region. If they don't, the consequences, unfortunately, are going to be very tragic."

9. 09

   What is happening in Gaza right now?

   Israel is conducting a major offensive in Gaza City, with Defence Minister Israel Katz stating on October 1, that Israeli forces are "tightening the siege" around the city. Following evacuation orders issued by the Israeli military on September 25, hundreds of thousands of Gaza City residents have fled to a designated "humanitarian area" in southern Gaza, though hundreds of thousands are believed to have stayed behind. Katz has warned that those remaining in Gaza City during the offensive will be considered "terrorists and supporters of terror." Israel states that the offensive is aimed at securing the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas.

10. 10

    Are there causes for optimism?

    The plan has garnered support from nearly all major regional governments and key Islamic states, except Iran, as well as the European Union and its member states. This broad backing provides not only political weight but also the substantial economic resources needed to make the plan’s commitment to rapid reconstruction and development of Gaza, and potentially the West Bank, feasible. Notably, some Arab states have expressed willingness to contribute armed stabilisation forces, a high-risk role that previously lacked volunteers. The plan is part of a broader strategy to foster regional peace through an expanding network of Abraham Accords, building on existing treaties with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Saudi Arabia is a primary candidate for inclusion, with Syria and Lebanon, both frequent targets of Israeli military actions, also considered potential partners.