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This is an archive article published on November 6, 2024

How Biden would have fared against Trump if he had stayed in the race?

A new YouGov poll gives some insights, showing that choosing Kamala Harris may have actually helped Democrats in this year’s close race against Donald Trump.

Biden vs TrumpWhile this data can’t tell us exactly what would have happened, it gives a strong hint as to why Biden’s team encouraged him to step down. (AP file photo)

One of the biggest “what ifs” of the 2024 election is: what would have happened if Joe Biden had stayed in the race instead of stepping down? A new YouGov poll gives some insights, showing that choosing Kamala Harris may have actually helped Democrats in this year’s close race against Donald Trump.

The poll, conducted among 1,103 Americans from November 1-3, suggests that if Biden had stayed in the race, he might have struggled. In a direct matchup, 48% of those surveyed said they would have voted for Trump, while only 41% would have voted for Biden—a seven-point lead for Trump.

However, with Harris on the ballot, the numbers shift: 49% of voters say they would choose Harris, while 46% support Trump, making it a much closer race.  

The poll also shows how Harris may be connecting better with certain groups of voters. Support for Harris is up eight points over Biden among both men and women. She also gains significantly more support among Hispanic voters, with 56% saying they would vote for her, compared to just 37% for Biden.

Harris also performs better with Black voters and White voters than Biden did, showing her appeal across different communities.

While this data can’t tell us exactly what would have happened, it gives a strong hint as to why Biden’s team encouraged him to step down.

Harris, being younger and appealing to a wider range of voters, may have been a better choice in such a tight election. Though we don’t yet know the official results, this poll suggests that Harris may have boosted the Democrats’ chances in this high-stakes race against Trump.

(With inputs from The Independent)

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