The unravelling of the international climate change architecture, a fear that has become real following the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement for the second time, could mean “a death sentence for most of humanity”, UN Climate Change chief Simon Stiell said, hoping that the US would eventually return to the Paris Agreement just as it had done in the past. “The door remains open for the United States to return, and I would always encourage this. Every fraction of a degree (in avoided temperature rise) counts in our fight against climate change, and international cooperation amplifies the efforts of all nations,” Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change who was in New Delhi over the weekend, told The Indian Express in an interview. US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement immediately after taking charge for his second term. He had pulled the United States out of the agreement during his first term as well but his successor Joe Biden got back in four years later. The withdrawal by the United States, the largest historical contributor of greenhouse gases and the second biggest emitter currently, has come as a serious setback to the multilateral climate process which has been struggling to put together a credible effort to keep the rising temperatures in check. There are also apprehensions that some other countries might follow in the footsteps of the United States. Germany’s far-right AfD party, which is expected to emerge as an influential player in the upcoming national elections, has indicated that it would walk out of the Paris Agreement if voted to power. Stiell said the disintegration of the international climate change architecture, represented by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Paris Agreement, would be a disaster. “Without our process of intergovernmental cooperation, we would be headed towards up to 5 degrees of global heating, a death sentence for most of humanity. We are still headed to around 3 degrees of heating, a disaster for every economy and population,” Stiell said. “That means, every fraction of a degree counts. Every action counts. And so, I am laser-focused on ensuring our process continues to deliver concrete outcomes and progress,” he said. Interestingly, the United States has withdrawn only from the Paris Agreement and not the UNFCCC, the mother agreement, just like last time. This means it continues to remain a part of the international process on climate change. Also, the Trump administration has not yet disassociated itself from the updated climate action plan that the Joe Biden administration had announced in December, making a commitment towards a 61-66 per cent reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 from the 2019 baseline. Stiell said he was hopeful that the setback was temporary and that countries would continue to increase their ambitions in the fight against climate change. “I am an optimist by nature. I am focused less on fears and more on what is being delivered now and the huge opportunities that are on the table for nations, states, and businesses willing to take them, with huge benefits in terms of lives saved, stronger economies, and living standards improved for billions of people everywhere,” he said. He said he was encouraged by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Mission LiFE initiative which emphasises lifestyle and behavioural changes to move away from wasteful and consumptive behaviour. “This initiative can help ensure these issues remain on top of the mind for people everywhere,” he said. Stiell acknowledged that many developing countries were not entirely happy with the outcome of the finance negotiations at the recent climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, but said that these annual conferences had been producing very important results, even if not the best that is needed. Developing countries, including India, had expressed disappointment with the fact that the developed nations had agreed to increase the scale of annual climate finance flows to just USD 300 billion, and that too from 2035, instead of the one trillion dollars that is the current requirement. “The last three COPs (annual climate conferences) have all delivered major and concrete outcomes that have taken the world forward in our climate fight, even in the face of growing geopolitical divisions and headwinds,” Stiell said. “But we should also recognise that this process, which requires unanimous agreement on every word among almost 200 countries, is not an easy one. No country or grouping gets everything it wants out of these negotiations. That is the nature of compromise in a very diverse world, with countries having very different starting points and priorities,” he said.
