Human-induced climate change worsened Los Angeles wildfires, says study
Without a faster transition away from planet-heating fossil fuels, California will continue to get hotter, drier and more flammable, says Clair Barnes of the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.
A firefighter battles the Lilac Fire near the Bonsall community of San Diego County, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
The severity of the Los Angeles wildfires has been attributed to human-induced climate change and, if global warming reaches 2.6 degrees C above pre-industrial times, as expected by 2100, the fire-prone conditions will increase by 35 per cent, making the US city an even more dangerous tinderbox. This has been found by a group of 32 researchers from the US and Europe as part of World Weather Attribution, which analyses the impact of climate change on extreme events worldwide. The study was released on Tuesday.
The crisis in Los Angeles began in the morning of January 7, with a fire in the Pacific Palisades area. By the afternoon, it had scorched 1,262 acres and grown six times in size. Much worse was still to come; in the evening, a new fire was reported from Altadena, called the Eaton Fire. The strong Santa Ana winds and the dry vegetation spread the fires further and faster into urban areas. Since then, people have been battling the second most destructive fire year in California’s history, with 29 dead, 150,000 evacuated and 16,000 homes and other properties destroyed. The total economic losses are yet to be calculated but are expected to be north of $250 billion. The fires have still not been fully controlled.
Firefighters work as the Hughes Fire burns in Castaic Lake, California, U.S. January 22, 2025. (Photo: Reuters)
“Climate change increased the risk of the devastating LA wildfires. Drought conditions are more frequently pushing into winter, increasing the chance that a fire will break out during the strong Santa Ana winds that can turn small infernos into deadly infernos. Without a faster transition away from planet-heating fossil fuels, California will continue to get hotter, drier and more flammable,” said Clair Barnes, World Weather Attribution researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.
In coastal southern California, which has a Mediterranean climate, with chaparral shrubland that has evolved to survive and recover from fires, grasses and oak trees, wildfires are a natural part of the ecosystem and occur throughout the year. They are usually the largest between July and September due to low fuel moisture caused by a lack of precipitation in summer, high temperatures and low humidity. The arrival of rain between October and December historically marked the end of the wildfire season. The Santa Ana winds typically occur in the cooler months between October and March.
Dry season longer now
The researchers have found that the length of the dry season has increased by about 23 days since pre-industrial times, when Earth was 1.3°C cooler. “This means that, due to the burning of fossil fuels, the dry season, when a lot of fuel is available, and the Santa Ana winds, which are crucial for the initial spread of wildfires, are increasingly overlapping,” says the study. It adds that, in recent decades, the rains have also decreased. Today, low rainfall across the three months is about 2.4 times more likely in neutral El Niño conditions, and a further 1.8 times more likely in La Niña conditions compared to the pre-industrial climate, says the study.
Firefighter Joshua Cari sprays water while battling the Lilac Fire near the Bonsall community of San Diego County, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
Hotter air temperatures are also evaporating more moisture from plants, making them easier to burn. Drier, flammable conditions persisting later in the year increase the chance a wildfire will break out during the peak of the Santa Ana winds in December and January, the scientists said.
To determine if climate change has helped promote the low October-December rainfall, lengthened the fire season and fire-prone weather, the scientists combined weather data with climate models.
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“However, the models did not perform well, in part due to the small, mountainous study area and the scattered, sparse rainfall. While the models indicated a climate change influence on the hot, dry, and windy conditions, they did not show a significant impact on rainfall or the fire season’s end date. Despite this, the scientists are confident that climate change is an important driver of the changes, based on existing scientific studies and the real-world weather data analysed, which show an increased likelihood of LA fires,” says an official statement from the study.
Firefighter Joshua Cari sprays water while battling the Lilac Fire near the Bonsall community of San Diego County, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
Roop Singh, Head of Urban and Attribution at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, said, “A deadly combination of factors came together to turn this wildfire into a disaster. Climate change set the stage, helping turn the hills around LA tinder-dry. However, hurricane-force Santa Ana winds, the rapid spread of fires into urban zones, and a strained water system all made the blazes extremely difficult to contain. These fires have highlighted just how vulnerable California is to winter wildfires, underscoring the need for better preparation for a more dangerous future.”
Dipanita Nath is a Senior Assistant Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. She is a versatile journalist with a deep interest in the intersection of culture, sustainability, and urban life.
Professional Background
Experience: Before joining The Indian Express, she worked with other major news organizations including Hindustan Times, The Times of India, and Mint.
Core Specializations: She is widely recognized for her coverage of the climate crisis, theatre and performing arts, heritage conservation, and the startup ecosystem (often through her "Pune Inc" series).
Storytelling Focus: Her work often unearths "hidden stories" of Pune—focusing on historical institutes, local traditions, and the personal journeys of social innovators.
Recent Notable Articles (December 2025)
Her recent reporting highlights Pune’s cultural pulse and the environmental challenges facing the city during the winter season:
1. Climate & Environment
"Pune shivers on coldest morning of the season; minimum temperature plunges to 6.9°C" (Dec 20, 2025): Reporting on the record-breaking cold wave in Pune and the IMD's forecast for the week.
"How a heritage tree-mapping event at Ganeshkhind Garden highlights rising interest in Pune’s green legacy" (Dec 20, 2025): Covering a citizen-led initiative where Gen Z and millennials gathered to document and protect ancient trees at a Biodiversity Heritage Site.
"Right to breathe: Landmark NGT order directs PMC to frame norms for pollution from construction sites" (Dec 8, 2025): Reporting on a significant legal victory for residents fighting dust and air pollution in urban neighborhoods like Baner.
2. "Hidden Stories" & Heritage
"Inside Pune library that’s nourished minds of entrepreneurs for 17 years" (Dec 21, 2025): A feature on the Venture Center Library, detailing how a collection of 3,500 specialized books helps tech startups navigate the product life cycle.
"Before he died, Ram Sutar gave Pune a lasting gift" (Dec 18, 2025): A tribute to the legendary sculptor Ram Sutar (creator of the Statue of Unity), focusing on his local works like the Chhatrapati Shivaji statue at Pune airport.
"The Pune institute where MA Jinnah was once chief guest" (Dec 6, 2025): An archival exploration of the College of Agriculture, established in 1907, and its historical role in India's freedom struggle.
3. Arts, Theatre & "Pune Inc"
"Satyajit Ray, Ritwik Ghatak were not rivals but close friends, says veteran filmmaker" (Dec 17, 2025): A deep-dive interview ahead of the Pune International Film Festival (PIFF) exploring the camaraderie between legends of Indian cinema.
"Meet the Pune entrepreneur helping women build and scale businesses" (Dec 16, 2025): Part of her "Pune Inc" series, profiling Nikita Vora’s efforts to empower female-led startups.
"How women drone pilots in rural Maharashtra are cultivating a green habit" (Dec 12, 2025): Exploring how technology is being used by women in agriculture to reduce chemical use and labor.
Signature Style
Dipanita Nath is known for intellectual curiosity and a narrative-driven approach. Whether she is writing about a 110-year-old eatery or the intricacies of the climate crisis, she focuses on the human element and the historical context. Her columns are often a blend of reportage and cultural commentary, making them a staple for readers interested in the "soul" of Pune.
X (Twitter): @dipanitanath ... Read More
5 min read
Firefighters work as the Hughes Fire burns in Castaic Lake, California, U.S. January 22, 2025. (Photo: Reuters)
Firefighter Joshua Cari sprays water while battling the Lilac Fire near the Bonsall community of San Diego County, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
Firefighter Joshua Cari sprays water while battling the Lilac Fire near the Bonsall community of San Diego County, Calif., on Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
