Dubai climate deal: Nothing to move the needle on 1.5 degree target

But beyond the symbolism of the first-ever acknowledgment of the need to move away from fossil fuels, the final agreement in Dubai does little to move the needle towards achieving the 1.5 degree target. The only provision that can make some difference in this regard is the one that calls upon countries to triple global renewable energy installed capacity and double the rate of annual improvements in energy efficiency by 2030. And that is clearly not enough, as several past analyses have shown.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which produces the most authoritative scientific information on this subject, says that global greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by at least 43 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030 to keep hopes of the 1.5-degree target alive. The latest estimates for global annual emissions shows that it is still rising. According to the Emissions Gap Report, published by the UN Environment Programme last month, global emissions in 2022 were at least a billion tonnes higher than in 2019. That is close to a 2 per cent rise.

To achieve a 43 per cent cut by 2030, greenhouse gas emissions would need to reduce by about 8.7 per cent every year from now on average. Such large cuts in annual emissions have never happened. The only time annual emissions have declined was in 2020 as a result of Covid pandemic, but even that big a disruption caused a dip of just 4.7 per cent.

It is also clear that the current scale of climate actions being taken by countries was highly inadequate. A recent assessment of all ongoing, and promised, climate actions, as mentioned in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by the countries, showed that these would lead to an emission reduction of just 2 per cent by 2030 from 2019 levels.

Clearly, COP28 needed to deliver on a significant increase in climate actions in the short term, between now and 2030. Apart from the tripling of renewable energy, and doubling of energy efficiency improvement rate, there is nothing in the final agreement to accelerate immediate climate action.

An assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that these two measures – tripling of renewables and doubling of efficiency improvement – if achieved, could avoid greenhouse gas emissions worth 7 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent between now and 2030. That is more than all the other climate actions put together. But this would still be highly inadequate. According to the Emissions Gap Report, annual emissions in 2030, with all the current, and promised, climate actions accounted for, were expected to be at least 24 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent higher than where it should be to align with the 1.5 degree Celsius pathway.

The COP28 agreement includes a provision for methane emission cuts as well. Methane is about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in causing global warming. Methane emission cuts can deliver significant outcomes in the short term. But methane accounts for less than 25 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions. So, its contribution to the required 43 per cent reduction can be limited, even if all methane emissions were suddenly stopped. Besides, the COP28 agreement on methane cuts are extremely weak. There are no targets for reductions. Earlier mentions of a 30 per cent global reduction by 2030 were dropped. There is a voluntary commitment from a group of nations, made in Glasgow but outside the COP process, to make 30 per cent reductions by 2030 but some important emitters, including India, are not part of that.

One way to accelerate climate actions was to provide more financial resources but COP28 failed to do that as well. Most of the developing countries have mentioned in their NDCs that they could take enhanced climate actions if enabling financial and technological resources were provided to them in accordance with the Paris Agreement. The assessment of these NDCs mentioned earlier said that if these enhanced climate actions could be enabled annual emissions in 2030 could be at least 8.3 per cent below 2019 levels, as against 2 per cent if these were not taken.

But financial resources have always been a constraint, and there is nothing in the COP28 agreement to change this situation.