Apple’s highly anticipated Vision Pro virtual reality headset quickly sold out after preorders opened last Friday. But some concerning signs point to waning demand according to Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the top Apple analysts.
Kuo estimates Apple sold between 160,000 to 180,000 units over launch weekend based on shipping times increasing to 5-7 weeks within hours of the preorder opening. However, those lengthy delivery estimates remained unchanged 48 hours after preorders began. Kuo wrote this “raises a major concern” that demand could taper off rapidly after early adopters and tech enthusiasts placed their orders.
The analyst pointed out that with a hot new iPhone model, shipping times typically continue rising 24-48 hours post-launch as demand grows even after initial sell-out. But this did not occur with the Vision Pro.
While the headset instantly sold out, hinting at strong initial interest, the stagnant delivery dates imply preorders may have dried up quickly after early fans jumped in. This contrasts with demand for new iPhones that keeps climbing in the days after a preorder window opens.
Kuo believes it should not be difficult for Apple to ship 500,000 Vision Pro units in 2024. But he previously forecast only 60,000-80,000 headsets produced for launch day on February 2.
Most Wall Street analysts do not expect the $3,499 Vision Pro to significantly boost Apple’s revenues yet. But they are closely monitoring how the reception of this first VR product from Apple could signal its future potential in a new category. As Kuo wrote, the Vision Pro “is still a very niche product” for now.
The Vision Pro’s preorder performance hints at strong early demand from tech enthusiasts willing to pay premium pricing. But signs of rapidly declining interest post-launch raises questions around mainstream appeal and if MR technology is compelling enough yet to reach beyond a niche audience.