Extreme heat and drought to impact 90% of world population, says Oxford study

According to an Oxford study, an estimated 90 per cent of the world's population will be affected by compounded extreme heat and drought conditions.

Climate Change | Global Warming | Oxford

South America, Horn of Africa, southern Africa, Middle East, eastern China, and northern India might experience more severe risks of compound heat-drought hazards than other regions. (File photo)

According to a new Oxford study, climate change will get worse in the coming decades as nearly 90 per cent of the world’s population will face extreme heat and drought conditions. The study published in Nature Sustainability says the combined threats of heat and drought put societies and ecosystems at a much higher risk than when either of them is considered independently. The researchers made the predictions using a large and complex climate-hydrology model. More importantly, countries in the global South will be disproportionally impacted by these extreme weather conditions.

“South America, Horn of Africa, southern Africa, Middle East, eastern China, and northern India might experience more severe risks of compound heat-drought hazards than other regions. We have projected a consistent intensification tendency [of the conditions] throughout the 21st century. But, we find that from 2060, the intensification rate will increase,” Jiabo Yin, lead author of the paper, told indianexpress.com over email.

These extreme weather conditions are seen as a direct consequence of greenhouse gas emissions. It is also feared that these will undermine the planet’s ability to reduce the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere using carbon sinks.

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“Terrestrial carbon sink highly relies on plant photosynthesis, which needs water, energy, nutrients and so on. In a warming future, heatwaves and droughts are projected to occur more frequently, which would limit the water supply for plant photosynthesis, thus limiting carbon sink. Moreover, heat and dry soil moisture conditions would impair the plant root function, also affecting plant carbon uptake,” Yin explained.

These effects could set off a vicious feedback cycle where carbon dioxide emissions cause extreme heat and drought, which in turn releases more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

“Compounded drought and heating events will be unavoidable unless we take drastic action to cut carbon emissions. Even when the conditions become severe, we can still do many things to mitigate the consequences, like improving the resilience of infrastructure and systems. For example, by planting more trees and working on carbon capture use and storage technologies,” he added.

According to Our World in Data, the United States has emitted a total of around 400 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide since 1751, making it responsible for 25 per cent of historical emissions. The European Union is also a large contributor, responsible for around 25 per cent of historical emissions. While compounded extreme heat and drought conditions will affect everyone around the world, they won’t affect everyone equally.

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“The high-risk areas are where a lot of low-income groups live. We need to pay special attention to helping them,” explained Yin, emphasising the importance of prioritising people who belong to low-income groups when considering mitigation measures against such extreme weather events.

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