World Cup 2015: Safety in numbers for big wigs

You can conjure a lot from these two isolated, maybe vaguely connected, incidents. Firstly that the Proteas aren’t the biggest fans of knockout matches, a reputation that by now has turned into a cliche. Secondly that finishing fourth in your group doesn’t stand you in bad stead. But most importantly, that being the form team in the first month of a World Cup has zero impact on the business end of the tournament.

For the record, India en route to lifting the trophy four years ago hardly looked like contenders in the opening stages. They edged past West Indies, were held to a tie by England despite making 338, and lost to South Africa. Back in 1996, the Lankans were gifted points with Australia and West Indies forfeiting their league matches.

The 2015 World Cup will only be the third time—the first outside the subcontinent—that the eventual champions will have to win three knockout matches for the silverware. On the face of it, the format might seem like one riddled with more obstacles than usual. But the fact that each group has three arguably weaker teams can make the first phase rather redundant, as was the case in the two previous editions where eight teams moved into a quarterfinal stage. Both in 1996 and 2011, the top eight teams advanced with nothing more than an odd bruise or two.

3 minnows, 3 tough-nuts

So if you break it down into two parts, the challenge is beating the three minnows at the start and then peaking in the three pressure matches towards the end. It could sound a tad cynical, but even Gary Kirsten agrees with it.

“The tournament is two months long but in effect, you just need to win three matches. That’s the main focus. In 2011, we had a bit of up and down in the group stages but adapted well during the knockouts,” he said recently.

Kirsten should know. He made 3 and was hit-wicket when South Africa were humbled by Brian Lara’s 94-ball 111 in Karachi. And 15 years later, he had stood with his hands aloft at the Wankhede Stadium balcony as MS Dhoni smashed the most famous six in India’s ODI history. In fact, the Indian squad members were even allowed to go home in between their league encounters to spend time with family back in 2011, as Kirsten revealed.

“They were asked to return a couple of days before matches as there was a week between each game,” he said.

“The team that deals well with the unexpected situations that the knockout matches throw up eventually does well. And that’s what we did, dealing well with the unexpected,” Kirsten added. South Africa couldn’t. India could, just like Arjuna Ranatunga’s Lankan lions in 1996. It also opens the door for teams like West Indies, who aren’t billed to pose threats but possess dangerous match-winners, to turn the screws on the more fancied teams when it’s least expected of them.

No doubt the present format makes for more exciting cricket because of the sheer number of fly-or-die encounters. But it also means that teams that triumph do not have to literally ‘beat the world’ to be crowned the best. Unlike Australia had to on all four occasions they won the World Cup. In 1999, they had to come through a tough league phase and then overcome three high-profile opponents in the Super Six stage before finally making it to the semifinals. They had to follow a similar route in 2003, when they were invincible. They made it three-on-the-trot by winning all their matches in 2007, when they came through a group of four teams and then beating four more teams in the Super 8 stages. Basically, those formats demanded the winner to be consistent throughout and then keep their nerve in the last week.

Few good days needed

In 1992, the last time the World Cup was held Down Under, the nine participating teams played each other in a lengthy first phase before the top four advanced to the knockouts. Pakistan had finished in the top quarter after surviving an up-and-down round-robin stage and seen off the Kiwis and England to win their first and only World Cup. As the tournament returns to Australia and New Zealand 23 years later, the latest world champion will not have to replicate Pakistan’s long-winding journey. They simply need to have three good days when it matters.

Tune in for:

Australia v England (MCG, February 14): There will be no love lost between the two arch-rivals, who have met only twice in World Cups since 1992, when England last beat Australia.

England v Scotland (Christchurch, Feb 23): Just six months after the Scots decided to remain a union with England and Wales through their September plebiscite, will the English trumpet silence the Scottish bagpipes?

South Africa v West Indies (Sydney, Feb 27): Can AB de Villiers actually score a quicker century against the same attack? West Indies have only won 22% of their ODIs against SA.

Australia v New Zealand (Auckland, Feb 28): The battle of the co-hosts. In 1992, NZ had upset their trans-Tasman rivals at the same ground to kick-off a famous campaign. This will also feature the two best bowling attacks in the WC. Pakistan v Ireland (Adelaide, March 15):

Their last World Cup battle had ended in tragedy with coach Bob Woolmer’s death. But before that came the ignominy of a premature exit brought upon by a embarrassing defeat to a debutant. Pakistan will be baying for payback.