The sole UP seat for Rajbhar leader in NDA alliance, Ghosi, proves tough going

Prominent leaders of all three contending parties – Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath for the BJP, and former CMs Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati for the SP and BSP, respectively – addressed public meetings in Ghosi.

The BJP and SP are attempting to capitalise on the fact that the BSP’s incumbent MP, Atul Kumar Singh, also known as Atul Rai, spent his entire five-year term in jail on charges of rape and abetment of suicide. However, Atul Kumar’s victory in 2019 had been massive, securing 50.27% of the votes, and finishing 1.22 lakh votes ahead of the BJP’s Hari Narayan.

Vote share in the Ghosi Lok Sabha constituency.

The BSP and SP had contested as allies in 2019.

In the 2022 UP elections which it won comfortably, the BJP had lost all the five Assembly seats falling under Ghosi. While three of the segments had been won by the SP, the BSP and SBSP had got one each.

This is one reason that the BJP wooed and brought Rajbhar back into the NDA fold in February, around four years after he broke ties with it. Inducted as a Cabinet minister in the Adityanath government, it is time now for Rajbhar to prove his worth to the BJP – and hence it is crucial for him that son Arvind wins from Ghosi.

However, not all BJP leaders are happy with the choice of Arvind for Ghosi. While the SBSP contested the 2017 UP Assembly elections in alliance with the BJP, Rajbhar had persistently criticised the Yogi Adityanath government over the issue of “internal reservations (within the existing quotas)”, and walked out of the NDA before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

After that, SBSP leaders kept taking on the BJP. This included Rajbhar, who went on to join hands with the SP for the 2022 Assembly polls. Making another flip early last year, he rejoined the NDA, and Rajbhar was made a Cabinet minister in the state.

A video went viral last month showing Deputy Chief Minister and senior BJP leader Brajesh Pathak purportedly getting Arvind to seek apology from BJP workers over what had transpired.

While Arvind insisted he was “merely taking blessings” of leaders, Akhilesh made the video an issue, saying it amounted to an insult to the OBC Rajbhar community.

Many believe the rancour over what Rajbhar said against the BJP, as well as his “apology” later, may affect Arvind’s prospects.

“People see Arvind as an outsider,” said Pawan Singh, a resident of the Mau city area, which falls under the Mau Assembly segment of Ghosi. The Mau Assembly seat was won by the SBSP in 2022.

The Scheduled Castes form the largest chunk (4 lakh) of Ghosi’s 20 lakh-odd voters, followed by 3 lakh Muslims. The Thakurs, Yadavs, Chauhans and Rajbhars are estimated to have between 1-2 lakh votes each.

Arvind, who is expecting to gain the traditional BJP votes, apart from the support of Rajbhars, said “there is no resentment among the people”. “Members of every community are supporting me. SCs will also vote for me because they support Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”

However, given the strength of the SC and Muslim vote in Ghosi, the BSP cannot be ruled out, as points out Pawan Singh, a resident of Kotwali area of Mau. “Every party is trying to woo the SC voters,” says Singh, a Thakur.

Another factor that may go in the BSP’s favour is the recent death of gangster-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari, who wielded much clout in the region, in prison. Many hold the BJP government responsible for his death. While Mukhtar was himself a five-time MLA from Mau, his brother Afzal Ansari is now the BSP candidate from the Ghazipur Lok Sabha seat.

Mukhtar’s son Abbas, who is also in jail facing various charges, won the Mau seat in the 2022 Assembly polls on the SBSP ticket.

The BSP has gone with OBC leader Balkrishna Chauhan as its candidate. Chauhan had won Ghosi as a BSP candidate in 1999. BSP Mau district president Raj Vijay said all communities were backing them, particularly the SCs. “Allegations that people are upset with the BSP because sitting MP Atul Kumar Singh has been jailed for five years are false. We ensured the constituency was not neglected… provided all help during COVID-19.”

The SP candidate is a Bhumihar, Rajiv Rai, who is the party’s national secretary and seen as close to Akhilesh. While Rajiv lost from Ghosi in 2014, the Bhumihars are influential here, and the SP is counting on getting most of the Muslim votes.

The late Kalpanath Rai, a four-time Ghosi MP and former Union minister, was one of the tallest leaders of the Bhumihar community in the region.

SP Mau district president Dudh Nath Yadav said, “We are getting support from all communities, including the Muslims and SCs. We have the support of 99.9% of the minorities. There is no doubt about our win in Ghosi.”